Solana Price Surges 93% to $145 on Institutional Interest

Solana's price has surged to approximately $145, driven by a significant increase in institutional interest. This surge is evidenced by the record-high trading volume of Solana CME futures, which reached 1.75 million contracts. This historic volume spike occurred as the price of SOL rebounded from a sharp correction to $75–$80, indicating that institutions are aggressively repositioning their holdings.

The heightened trading activity aligns with key technical zones, suggesting that institutions are closely monitoring Solana's price movements. Between April 19 and June 22, trading volumes closely mirrored SOL's price swings, ranging from $100 to $200. This period saw institutions ramp up their exposure as Solana entered crucial technical zones, with daily volumes mostly staying under 400,000 contracts in late April when SOL traded between $100 and $110. By early May, volumes picked up to near 350,000 contracts as SOL began climbing from $100 to around $120.

Mid-May saw a significant spike in futures volume to nearly 900,000 contracts as SOL broke past $130 and tested the $140 zone. Late May brought explosive activity, with several sessions exceeding 850,000 contracts as SOL surged to $150–$160. Early June saw a cooling momentum with volumes dropping to 200,000–400,000 contracts as SOL corrected to $120–$130. However, mid-June witnessed a modest recovery with volumes rising to 600,000 contracts, culminating in the historic 1.75 million volume spike as SOL dipped to $75–$80.

Technical analysis by analyst Man of Bitcoin indicates that Solana has completed a five-wave impulse sequence. Wave 3 hit resistance at $148.71, while wave 5 concluded near $139.85. The current price hovers close to the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $139.73. A corrective ABC wave appears to be unfolding, with wave A dropping from $191 to $124, followed by a wave B rally toward $167. Wave C now targets lower zones, possibly reaching $116.81. Support lies at $129.14 and $121.34, while resistance holds at $148.71 and $167.84. Trading volumes align with wave movements, suggesting continued volatility as price action tests support boundaries.

The anticipation of a potential Solana ETF launch has further fueled optimism, with analysts interpreting the spike in trading volumes as a sign of increasing confidence in the ETF's potential approval. The recent update to the S-1 filing has contributed to the heightened trading activity, with CME's Solana futures trading volume reaching its highest levels since the product's debut in March. This surge in volume suggests that institutional investors are not only building positions but also preparing for the potential launch of a Solana ETF. The market's enthusiasm is further bolstered by the registration of VanEck's VSOL ticker with the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC), which, while not a guarantee of immediate trading, has historically preceded the commencement of ETF trading.

The potential approval of a Solana ETF could have significant implications for the cryptocurrency's price. Experts suggest that Solana could experience a substantial price recalibration, with potential rebounds in the $180–$200 range. This optimism is shared by prominent cryptocurrency traders and influencers, who are anticipating increased on-chain activity, token launches, and new revenue streams to drive strong quarterly results. An approved ETF would likely reignite demand and momentum for SOL, potentially boosting its valuation and serving as a pivotal moment in connecting the cryptocurrency ecosystem with traditional financial markets.

The growing institutional interest in Solana is further evidenced by the significant increase in block trades on CME, which now account for 10% of total activity. Since the launch of Solana futures, approximately 106,000 contracts have changed hands on CME, representing a notional trading volume of $3 billion. Although the size of the CME market is relatively small compared to overall SOL trading activity, it signals a growing institutional interest and mainstream market penetration. Additionally, CME reported the highest open interest volume for Solana futures on July 17, further reflecting heightened trading activity.

The market's optimism regarding the potential approval of a Solana ETF is also reflected in the surge in search volumes for terms like "SOL ETF" and "Solana ETF." This growing interest in the mainstream market is further supported by prediction markets, which assigned a 91% likelihood to the approval of a Solana ETF, with a 50% chance of it happening by the end of July. The potential approval of a Solana ETF could not only boost SOL’s valuation but also serve as a pivotal moment in connecting the cryptocurrency ecosystem with traditional financial markets.