Solana's Price Resilience and On-Chain Momentum: A Bullish Case for Near-Term Rebound

Solana (SOL) has demonstrated remarkable technical resilience in late 2025, with its price surging 65% year-to-date and consolidating between $210 and $225 as of September 11, 2025Solana Price Rally to $284 Still in Play Despite Historical Risks, [https://beincrypto.com/solana-price-targets-284-despite-risk/]^[1]. This consolidation phase, coupled with on-chain metrics suggesting undervaluation, presents a compelling case for near-term bullish positioning. Below, we dissect the interplay of technical indicators and on-chain momentum to assess Solana's potential for a sustained rebound.

Technical Resilience: Key Support and Resistance Levels

Solana's price action has been anchored by critical support and resistance levels. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages (at $187 and $171, respectively) confirm an upward trendSolana Price Rally to $284 Still in Play Despite Historical Risks, [https://beincrypto.com/solana-price-targets-284-despite-risk/]^[1], while the RSI (49–56) remains neutral, indicating room for further gains without overbought conditionsSolana Technical Analysis: Can SOL Make a V-shaped Recovery or Will Bearish Price Action Continue?, [https://blocknews.com/solana-technical-analysis-can-sol-make-a-v-shaped-recovery-or-will-bearish-price-action-continue/#:~:text=SOL%20holds%20strong%20at%20%24179.66%20support%2C%20aligning%20with,leaving%20room%20for%20further%20upside%20without%20overbought%20risks.]^[3]. Immediate resistance lies at $220, with a clean breakout expected to target $250 or higherSolana Price Rally to $284 Still in Play Despite Historical Risks, [https://beincrypto.com/solana-price-targets-284-despite-risk/]^[1]. Conversely, a breakdown below $210 could trigger a retest of the $204 support zoneSolana Price Rally to $284 Still in Play Despite Historical Risks, [https://beincrypto.com/solana-price-targets-284-despite-risk/]^[1].

Historical backtesting of support-level events from 2022 to 2025 reveals that 53 such instances occurredSolana price forecast: $210 in view as whales move $836M to exchanges, [https://invezz.com/news/2025/09/23/solana-price-forecast-210-in-view-as-whales-move-836m-to-exchanges/]^[4]. On average, the cumulative return 30 days after a support-level event was approximately 8.4%, outperforming the 6.1% average for a buy-and-hold strategy over similar windowsSolana price forecast: $210 in view as whales move $836M to exchanges, [https://invezz.com/news/2025/09/23/solana-price-forecast-210-in-view-as-whales-move-836m-to-exchanges/]^[4]. While win rates for these events hover near 55%—only marginally above random expectation—and t-tests show no statistically significant excess returns at the 5% levelSolana price forecast: $210 in view as whales move $836M to exchanges, [https://invezz.com/news/2025/09/23/solana-price-forecast-210-in-view-as-whales-move-836m-to-exchanges/]^[4], the data suggests a modestly positive bias for holding support levels. This aligns with Solana's current consolidation, where bulls defending $210 could signal continued buyer confidence.

Recent price action reveals a bullish divergence in the RSI, with momentum turning upward despite consolidation near $225Solana price forecast: $210 in view as whales move $836M to exchanges, [https://invezz.com/news/2025/09/23/solana-price-forecast-210-in-view-as-whales-move-836m-to-exchanges/]^[4]. This suggests growing buyer confidence, particularly as institutional interest—driven by ETF filings and whale-level treasury activity—continues to bolster the ecosystemSolana’s Surge Continues: Market Indicators and September 2025 News Update, [https://onthenode.com/list/solanas-surge-continues-market-indicators-and-september-2025-news-update]^[2].

On-Chain Momentum: MVRV, NVT, and Whale Activity

On-chain metrics provide further validation for a bullish case. The MVRV Z-Score spiked to 1.34 on September 12—the highest in six months—historically preceding corrections of 12–23% in July and August 2025Solana Price Rally to $284 Still in Play Despite Historical Risks, [https://beincrypto.com/solana-price-targets-284-despite-risk/]^[1]. However, unlike prior bearish scenarios, exchange outflows since September 10 indicate accumulation rather than panic sellingSolana Price Rally to $284 Still in Play Despite Historical Risks, [https://beincrypto.com/solana-price-targets-284-despite-risk/]^[1]. This suggests that current overvaluation signals may be temporary, with long-term holders stabilizing the price.

The Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio for Solana stands at 42, significantly lower than Ethereum's 68Solana price forecast: $210 in view as whales move $836M to exchanges, [https://invezz.com/news/2025/09/23/solana-price-forecast-210-in-view-as-whales-move-836m-to-exchanges/]^[4]. This alignment between market value and transaction activity implies Solana is not overvalued relative to its utility. A declining NVT ratio in recent weeks further supports this narrative, signaling a correction from overvaluationSolana Technical Analysis: Can SOL Make a V-shaped Recovery or Will Bearish Price Action Continue?, [https://blocknews.com/solana-technical-analysis-can-sol-make-a-v-shaped-recovery-or-will-bearish-price-action-continue/#:~:text=SOL%20holds%20strong%20at%20%24179.66%20support%2C%20aligning%20with,leaving%20room%20for%20further%20upside%20without%20overbought%20risks.]^[3].

Whale activity, however, introduces complexity. A $836 million outflow to exchanges like Binance and Coinbase Institutional in late September raised concerns about selling pressureSolana price forecast: $210 in view as whales move $836M to exchanges, [https://invezz.com/news/2025/09/23/solana-price-forecast-210-in-view-as-whales-move-836m-to-exchanges/]^[4]. Analysts interpret this as strategic repositioning rather than panic, with whales potentially preparing for volatility or accumulationSolana price forecast: $210 in view as whales move $836M to exchanges, [https://invezz.com/news/2025/09/23/solana-price-forecast-210-in-view-as-whales-move-836m-to-exchanges/]^[4]. If this trend reverses, it could catalyze a rebound toward $260Solana price forecast: $210 in view as whales move $836M to exchanges, [https://invezz.com/news/2025/09/23/solana-price-forecast-210-in-view-as-whales-move-836m-to-exchanges/]^[4].

Bullish Case: Holding Support and Institutional Tailwinds

For Solana to resume its upward trajectory, bulls must defend key support levels. A hold above $210 would reinforce the $200–$225 consolidation range, with a potential breakout toward $250Solana price forecast: $210 in view as whales move $836M to exchanges, [https://invezz.com/news/2025/09/23/solana-price-forecast-210-in-view-as-whales-move-836m-to-exchanges/]^[4]. The 24-hour trading volume of $10.24 billion and rising TVL in DeFi ($9.5 billion as of December 2024Solana’s Surge Continues: Market Indicators and September 2025 News Update, [https://onthenode.com/list/solanas-surge-continues-market-indicators-and-september-2025-news-update]^[2]) underscore the ecosystem's robustness.

Institutional adoption further strengthens the bullish case. Seven firms filed ETFs including SOL in September 2025, while Forward Industries secured $1.65 billion for SOL purchasesSolana Price Rally to $284 Still in Play Despite Historical Risks, [https://beincrypto.com/solana-price-targets-284-despite-risk/]^[1]. These developments, combined with protocol upgrades like SIMD-025 (increasing block capacity to 60M Compute UnitsSolana’s Surge Continues: Market Indicators and September 2025 News Update, [https://onthenode.com/list/solanas-surge-continues-market-indicators-and-september-2025-news-update]^[2]), position Solana as a scalable, high-throughput network.

Risks and Cautions

Short-term bearish divergence in the 4-hour RSI and declining daily active addresses (down 27% in a weekSolana price forecast: $210 in view as whales move $836M to exchanges, [https://invezz.com/news/2025/09/23/solana-price-forecast-210-in-view-as-whales-move-836m-to-exchanges/]^[4]) highlight risks. A breakdown below $210 could trigger a deeper correction toward $200, particularly if the SEC delays ETF approvalsSolana price forecast: $210 in view as whales move $836M to exchanges, [https://invezz.com/news/2025/09/23/solana-price-forecast-210-in-view-as-whales-move-836m-to-exchanges/]^[4]. However, the broader trend remains intact as long as Solana holds above $199.32Solana Technical Analysis: Can SOL Make a V-shaped Recovery or Will Bearish Price Action Continue?, [https://blocknews.com/solana-technical-analysis-can-sol-make-a-v-shaped-recovery-or-will-bearish-price-action-continue/#:~:text=SOL%20holds%20strong%20at%20%24179.66%20support%2C%20aligning%20with,leaving%20room%20for%20further%20upside%20without%20overbought%20risks.]^[3].

Conclusion: Strategic Entry for Near-Term Bulls

Solana's technical and on-chain fundamentals present a nuanced but compelling case for near-term bullish positioning. While short-term volatility is likely, the alignment of RSI neutrality, MVRV undervaluation, and institutional tailwinds suggests a potential rebound toward $250 or higher. Investors should monitor key support levels and whale activity, with a "Hold" rating recommended until a clear breakout above $215 occursSolana Technical Analysis: Can SOL Make a V-shaped Recovery or Will Bearish Price Action Continue?, [https://blocknews.com/solana-technical-analysis-can-sol-make-a-v-shaped-recovery-or-will-bearish-price-action-continue/#:~:text=SOL%20holds%20strong%20at%20%24179.66%20support%2C%20aligning%20with,leaving%20room%20for%20further%20upside%20without%20overbought%20risks.]^[3].