Solana Price Eyes 5% Surge Ahead of FOMC Minutes

Solana's price has recently broken out from its July compression channel ahead of the Federal Market Open Committee (FOMC) minutes, which could potentially set the stage for an extended 5% surge to $160. However, the increased hedging on the Options market suggests that some traders are not fully convinced by this breakout. The sentiment across Options Volume shifted from a bullish Put/Call (P/C) ratio of 0.35 to a bearish rating of 1.19, indicating a premium for puts (bearish bets) over calls (bullish bets). This shift suggests that traders are positioning for a potential pullback should the FOMC Minutes turn hawkish.

Despite the breakout, the derivative market has remained flat, with Open Interest (OI) stuck around $7.1 billion. This stagnation in speculative interest in July, compared to the recovery from $4 billion to over $7 billion in Q2, suggests that the breakout could be fake unless the OI expands. Additionally, there has been no strong bidding from the spot market side, with the spot CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) declining in early July. This decline indicates that the July price action and recent breakout were purely driven by speculation and leverage, with no spot demand. As a result, the rally could be short-lived or retraced.

In the mid-term, Solana ETF speculation could set the direction for Q3. However, for this week, Solana could be driven by liquidation hunts. If that’s the case, Solana could tag $154.6 or stretch to $158 before hunting for the leveraged longs at $145. There was nearly $600 million in cumulative longs at $145, making it a potential price magnet. The Q2 rebound showed a bullish structure after defending the realized price (average cost basis of most Solana holders). Any sustained drop below the realized price (currently at $131) would invalidate the bullish market structure.

Solana's price movement is closely tied to Bitcoin's performance, which has been hovering just below $109,000 and is poised to break above $110,000. This correlation suggests that a significant move in Bitcoin could drive Solana's price higher. Institutional interest in Solana is also on the rise, with DeFi Dev Corp increasing its holdings by 64%, now owning 690,420 SOL, valued at $103 million. This substantial investment signals growing confidence in Solana's potential and could attract more institutional players to the ecosystem.

Technical analysis indicates that Solana is forming a bullish symmetrical triangle on the 4-hour chart, with a potential breakout targeting $170. Analysts suggest that this breakout could occur within the next 24 to 48 hours, leading to a substantial upward move. The recent technical setup aligns with the growing interest in Solana, as highlighted by DeFi Dev Corp’s increased exposure to SOL. With institutional confidence building, Solana is positioning itself for stronger price action, especially if the breakout from this triangle formation materializes.

Solana's price is currently holding a critical support level at $147.59, which has consistently acted as a key point of interest. Holding this level is crucial to prevent further downward pressure and set the stage for a potential rally. If Solana continues to hold this key level, it could establish a strong foundation for a move toward higher levels. The price action around this area is critical for Solana’s near-term outlook.

After days of tight range trading, Solana is once again eyeing the $164 resistance, a level that has been acting as serious resistance for the upside. A clean breakout above $164 opens up the path to $190 and potentially even $200, which aligns with the next major inefficiency zones. Volume remains low for now, but a surge on breakout would confirm buyers stepping in. On the downside, $147 to $150 still acts as key support. As long as SOL holds that floor and continues pressing against resistance, momentum is building pressure for an eventual breakout.

The institutional narrative around Solana is strengthening, with the newly filed Truth Social Crypto Blue Chip ETF including SOL alongside BTC, ETH, and a few others, allocating 8% of its portfolio directly to Solana. This inclusion confirms that Solana is no longer just a speculative bet and signals rising institutional trust. The ETF filing could act as a catalyst right as Solana attempts to break out the $164 level. A confirmed push above that range, fueled by increasing institutional flows and stronger ETF narratives, could set the stage for a swift rally toward the $190 to $200 zone.

In conclusion, Solana is not just riding a wave of hype; it is building a solid foundation of real momentum. From DeFi Dev Corp doubling down on its SOL holdings to new ETF exposure, the signals are getting harder to ignore. These aren't just short-term headlines; they represent a larger shift in how institutions view Solana. If Solana’s price manages to flip the $164 barrier convincingly, the road to $190 to $200 opens up much faster. The convergence of technical strength and institutional narrative suggests that Solana is poised for a significant price movement in the near future.