Will Solana's Price Continue to Spiral Toward $100 Amid Deepening Bearish Momentum?

Solana (SOL) has entered a critical juncture in November 2025, with its price action and market fundamentals raising urgent questions about its short-term trajectory. After a sharp decline below key support levels and the formation of bearish technical patterns, investors are increasingly concerned about the cryptocurrency's potential to spiral toward $100. This analysis examines the technical and fundamental factors driving this bearish momentum, while evaluating whether a rebound is still possible.

Technical Analysis: Fractured Supports and Bearish Indicators

Solana's price has been testing critical support levels with increasing vulnerability. On November 11, SOL broke below the $165 level-a key psychological and technical threshold-dropping 3.1% to $164.30 amid a spike in trading volume near $163.85, signaling a breakdown in bullish defenses according to Coindesk. This move confirmed a downtrend structure, with overhead resistance at $170.50 failing to contain selling pressure.

By late November, the price stabilized near $130, but this level itself became a focal point of contention. According to MEXC analysis, a breakdown below $121–$123 could expose SOL to further downside, with analysts warning of potential targets at $107 and $95. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 33 suggested mild bullish divergence as buyers defended the $130 area, yet the death cross between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages underscored prolonged bearish momentum according to MEXC data. Meanwhile, the MACD showed weakening selling pressure, hinting at a possible near-term pause in the decline.

A critical decision zone emerged around $142–$145, where a breakout could trigger a rebound toward $150–$165. However, a failure to hold above $133-a multi-year trendline-would likely deepen the bearish narrative. Analysts noted that a successful bounce from an ascending channel support could theoretically push SOL toward $262, but this scenario hinges on immediate and sustained buying interest according to CoinGape analysis.

Fundamental Catalysts: Network Reliability and Macroeconomic Pressures

While Solana's network maintained 100% uptime in November 2025, historical outages have left a lingering shadow over investor sentiment. Past disruptions, despite recent upgrades like Firedancer, have contributed to volatility and eroded trust in the ecosystem's reliability. This reputational risk remains a latent bearish factor, even as the network's current performance appears stable.

Macroeconomic headwinds further amplify the bearish case. Rising interest rates and a broader risk-off environment have pressured crypto markets, with SOL falling to a five-month low below $138 amid these conditions. Additionally, regulatory uncertainties-particularly potential restrictions on staking or digital asset liquidity-pose a threat to institutional adoption and long-term growth.

Bullish Counterpoints: Institutional Developments and Technical Optimism

Not all signals are bearish. Franklin Templeton's launch of a Solana ETF and Chainlink-powered cross-chain integrations with networks like Base are seen as long-term bullish catalysts. On the technical front, tools like the TD Sequential buy signal and On-Balance Volume (OBV) suggest potential for a double-bottom formation, with a rebound toward $150–$165 still possible if key supports hold.

However, these optimistic scenarios depend on immediate market conditions stabilizing. The current bearish momentum, driven by fractured supports and macroeconomic pressures, appears to outweigh short-term bullish catalysts.

Conclusion: A Tenuous Balance Between Bearish and Bullish Forces

Solana's price trajectory in the coming weeks will hinge on its ability to defend critical support levels. A breakdown below $121 could accelerate the slide toward $100, while a successful rebound from $130 might rekindle bullish momentum. However, the confluence of macroeconomic pressures, regulatory risks, and technical fragility suggests that the bearish case remains dominant in the short term. Investors should closely monitor the $133 trendline and $142–$145 resistance zone for decisive clues about the next phase of Solana's journey.