Solana's Potential $140 Price Target and the Role of RSI and Volume in a Near-Term Bullish Reversal

The cryptocurrency market in November 2025 has been defined by aggressive selling pressure, with Bitcoin's 30-day RSI hitting levels not seen since the Lido ETH de-peg crisis in June 2022. Amid this broader bearish backdrop, Solana (SOL) has presented a nuanced technical and on-chain narrative that suggests a potential near-term reversal toward $140. This analysis explores how RSI divergence, volume dynamics, and institutional demand are aligning to create a strategic entry point for investors.

RSI Divergence and Structural Support

Solana's RSI reading of 37.25 as of November 2025 indicates oversold conditions, but the critical detail lies in the bullish divergence forming between price action and momentum. While the price remains capped near $133, the RSI has begun to print higher lows, signaling waning selling pressure. This divergence is often a precursor to reversals, as seen in historical market cycles.

On the 4-hour chart, Solana's price has compressed into a reversal wedge pattern, a consolidation structure that typically precedes a breakout. The wedge's tightening range suggests diminishing downside momentum, even as sellers retain control of the trend. For a bullish breakout, Solana must first hold its key support level at $118–$120. A successful defense of this zone would open the door to a corrective rally toward $145–$160, with $140 serving as an intermediate target.

Volume Trends: Position Adjustments vs. Exit Flows

Volume analysis reveals a mixed picture. On December 1, Solana's derivatives open interest fell 11.43% to $6.68 billion, but trading volume surged 75% to $17.76 billion. This disconnect suggests traders are adjusting positions rather than exiting entirely-a sign of accumulation in oversold territory. Conversely, on November 13, volume spiked 13.23% above weekly averages as institutional selling dominated price action, pushing Solana down 5% to $145.

The contrast between these two data points is telling. While short-term selling remains aggressive, the surge in volume during open interest declines implies that long-term holders are using dips to add to positions. This dynamic is critical for a reversal, as it indicates a shift in sentiment from capitulation to selective buying.

Institutional Demand and On-Chain Resilience

Despite the broader market's weakness, Solana has attracted $101.7 million in net inflows through investment products in November 2025. This institutional demand contrasts sharply with Bitcoin's struggles, where U.S. trading sessions accounted for 85% of BTC's losses during the month. Solana's ability to attract capital during a downturn underscores its role as a high-conviction asset for institutional players.

On-chain metrics further reinforce this narrative. While blockchain revenues and DEX volumes have weakened, the perp funding rates for Solana derivatives have stabilized, suggesting reduced bearish pressure from leveraged short positions. This stabilization is a prerequisite for a sustained rally, as it removes a key source of downward drag.

Strategic Entry Points and Risk Management

For investors considering Solana as a speculative play, the key technical levels define the risk-reward framework. A break above $132–$136 resistance would confirm the reversal wedge's bullish case and set up a move toward $140. However, a breakdown below $118–$120 support would invalidate the pattern and likely extend the decline toward $100.

Position sizing should reflect this volatility. Given the current RSI divergence and institutional inflows, a limit order near $125–$130 could offer an attractive risk-reward profile, with a stop-loss placed below $118. The $140 target aligns with the wedge's projected breakout trajectory and serves as a psychological hurdle that, if cleared, could reignite broader market optimism.

Conclusion

Solana's technical and on-chain profile in November 2025 paints a picture of a market at a crossroads. While the broader crypto environment remains bearish, Solana's RSI divergence, volume dynamics, and institutional inflows suggest a near-term reversal is not only possible but increasingly probable. For investors with a medium-term horizon, the $140 price target represents a compelling inflection point-one that could mark the beginning of a new bullish phase for the ecosystem.