Is Solana Poised to Break Above $145 Amid Mixed On-Chain and Technical Signals?

The Solana (SOL) price action in late 2025 has become a textbook case of conflicting signals between technical optimism and fundamental caution. As the asset hovers near the $145–$147 resistance zone, market participants are split between bullish technical indicators and weakening on-chain fundamentals. This analysis dissects the tug-of-war between these forces to determine whether Solana can sustain a breakout or if underlying weaknesses will cap its ascent.

Technical Strength: A Rally Built on Institutional Momentum

From a technical perspective, Solana's price structure suggests a potential breakout is within reach. The asset has stabilized above the critical $130–$135 support zone, with momentum indicators showing renewed buying pressure. A sustained close above $145 could trigger a move toward the $150–$155 range, a level previously tested during earlier rallies. Derivatives data reinforces this narrative: open interest has risen sharply, and the long-to-short ratio has shifted in favor of bullish positioning, signaling growing confidence among derivatives traders.

Institutional flows further bolster the technical case. Major ETF providers like Bitwise have seen inflows into their Solana products, with the BSOL ETF accumulating $369 million in assets. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley's filing for a Solana Trust with the SEC underscores growing institutional validation. These developments suggest that capital inflows are increasingly decoupled from on-chain activity, driven instead by macroeconomic factors such as ETF demand and macro risk-on sentiment.

Weakening Fundamentals: A Network Struggling to Justify Valuation

Despite the technical optimism, on-chain metrics tell a different story. Solana's Network Value to Transaction (NVT) ratio has widened to historically elevated levels, indicating that valuation growth is outpacing transactional demand. This divergence raises concerns about speculative overvaluation, as the network's market cap has surged while real-world usage metrics stagnate or decline.

Daily active addresses on Solana have plummeted to a 12-month low of 3.3 million, down from 7–9 million earlier in 2025. While decentralized exchange (DEX) volume hit a record $1.6 trillion in 2025, this growth appears concentrated among a shrinking pool of high-frequency traders and specialized protocols rather than broad user adoption. As one analyst notes, "The network is seeing throughput, but not participation-a dangerous disconnect for long-term sustainability".

Institutional Interest vs. Network Growth: A Delicate Balance

The tension between institutional demand and network fundamentals is Solana's defining challenge. On one hand, ETF inflows and institutional custody solutions are creating new demand channels, insulating the asset from traditional on-chain metrics. On the other, slowing wallet creation and declining user activity suggest the network is losing its grassroots momentum. This dichotomy mirrors broader trends in crypto markets, where institutional adoption can temporarily decouple prices from fundamentals but rarely sustains long-term growth without organic usage.

A key wildcard is whether Solana's ecosystem can reignite user participation. While 2025 saw 11 million new tokens launched on the network, these projects have yet to translate into meaningful address growth. If developers and users return en masse, the NVT ratio could normalize, and the $145 breakout might gain lasting credibility. Conversely, a failure to reverse the decline in active addresses could force prices back toward the $130 support level, invalidating the current technical case.

Conclusion: A High-Stakes Test for Solana

Solana's battle above $145 is less about the price level itself and more about resolving the fundamental-technical divide. Technically, the asset has the momentum and institutional tailwinds to break through resistance. Fundamentally, it must prove that its valuation is supported by sustainable network growth rather than speculative capital flows.

For investors, the coming weeks will hinge on two metrics: whether the $145 level holds amid renewed buying pressure and whether on-chain activity stabilizes or improves. As the market awaits clarity, Solana remains a high-risk, high-reward proposition-one where the outcome could redefine the interplay between institutional demand and blockchain fundamentals in 2026.