Solana's Oversold RSI and $190 Price Level: A Catalyst for 80% Upside?

The Technical Case for Solana's $190 Support and Oversold RSI

Solana (SOL) has entered a critical juncture in its price action, with technical indicators and on-chain data suggesting a potential inflection point. As of October 15, 2025, the asset is consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern, bounded by a rising support line and a descending resistance line, according to a jrKripto analysis. The current price of approximately $200.77 sits near the triangle's apex, with the $195 level acting as both short-term support and the pattern's lower boundary, as noted by jrKripto. A confirmed daily close above $227 could trigger a bullish breakout, targeting $253 and $295, while a breakdown below $195 risks a decline to $171 and $163, per jrKripto's commentary.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) further underscores the asset's positioning. The 1-hour RSI is at 62, nearing overbought territory, while the 7-day RSI stands at 45, according to RSI Hunter. More critically, the 14-day RSI has entered oversold territory at 41.11, per a BTCC analysis, a condition historically associated with short-term rebounds. This oversold condition, combined with Solana's price holding firm above key support levels like $188–$190 (noted by RSI Hunter), suggests a potential recovery might be on the horizon.

Historically, however, a simple buy-and-hold strategy triggered by RSI14 falling below 30 has shown mixed results. A backtest from 2022 to 2025 revealed prolonged drawdowns and negative returns when using this rule alone, suggesting the need for additional filters such as trend confirmation or stop-loss mechanisms, as discussed in the BTCC write-up. While the current RSI14 at 41.11 is not yet in the traditional oversold zone (below 30), the proximity to key support levels and institutional inflows may still present a high-probability setup-if combined with robust risk management.

Sentiment and On-Chain Dynamics: A Mixed Picture

Crypto sentiment for Solana remains mixed. The Fear & Greed Index, a gauge of market psychology, is at 29 (Fear), reflecting widespread caution, according to the BTCC piece. Derivative indicators also show a sell bias, with declining open interest and dominant selling activity, which the BTCC coverage highlights. However, this bearish backdrop is partially offset by positive institutional flows. ETF and ETP inflows into Solana have reached $127 million in the past week, marking 15 consecutive weeks of growth and pushing assets under management to $4.3 billion, per RSI Hunter. These inflows suggest sustained institutional interest, which could provide a bullish undercurrent if the $190 support level holds.

The $190 level itself is a focal point for traders and analysts. Some view it as a critical resistance level that must be breached to initiate a substantial rally, while others argue it has become a strong support zone following recent price action and Open Interest (OI) data, according to a Cointribune analysis. A breakdown below $190 could trigger a deeper sell-off to $180 or even $156, the Cointribune analysis warns, but a successful defense of this level might catalyze a rebound toward $210, $237, and $295, per Cointribune.

Strategic Entry Points and Risk Management

For traders considering entry points, the $190 level represents a high-probability setup. If the price stabilizes here and the RSI rebounds from oversold territory, a bullish case emerges for an 80% upside from the current $194 level (targeting $350+). However, risk management is paramount. A daily close below $170 would invalidate the bullish case, with further support at $156 and $126, as outlined by Cointribune. Conversely, a breakout above $227 could accelerate the price toward $253 and $295, a scenario jrKripto highlights.

Conclusion: Balancing Caution and Opportunity

Solana's technical and sentiment landscape presents a nuanced scenario. While the oversold RSI and $190 support level offer a compelling case for a short-term rebound, the broader bearish context-driven by Bitcoin's downward trend and declining open interest-cannot be ignored, a point emphasized by Cointribune. Traders must weigh the potential for an 80% upside against the risks of a breakdown below $190. For those with a medium-term horizon, a disciplined approach-using $190 as a dynamic support/resistance pivot-could position them to capitalize on Solana's next move, whether bullish or bearish.