Solana News Today: Whale's $29M Bet: Solana's Bull Case Hinges on Breaking $210

A whale has opened a $29 million long position on Solana (SOL), signaling strong confidence in the asset’s potential to climb to $229 or higher. The move was executed by depositing $14.53 million in USDC into Hyperliquid and acquiring 143,126 SOL with 2x leverage [3]. At the time of the bet, the price of SOL was near $202, maintaining a steady trajectory within a defined price channel. The bullish market structure is supported by higher lows and consistent upward tests of resistance, with immediate resistance at $218 and higher targets at $229 and $263 if momentum accelerates [3].

Technical analysis supports this optimism. Solana’s price action has formed a bullish megaphone pattern on the weekly chart, suggesting that a breakout above $330 could propel the price toward $1,057. The relative strength index has risen from 49 to 61 since early August, indicating growing bullish momentum. Additionally, the price has broken out of a cup-and-handle pattern, and bulls are now focused on pushing SOL above $250 to continue the rally [1].

Further reinforcing the bullish sentiment is Solana’s open interest (OI), which reached an all-time high of $13.68 billion, reflecting strong speculative interest in the derivatives market. High OI often precedes significant price moves, as seen in previous periods when an increase in OI was followed by a price surge. The current rise in OI coincides with the approval of the Alpenglow upgrade, which improved Solana’s performance and increased investor confidence [1].

However, the market structure also shows signs of overheating. Data from CryptoQuant’s Futures Volume Bubble Map highlights aggressive positioning by traders chasing momentum, a pattern that often leads to sharp reversals when sentiment shifts. Moreover, CoinGlass data reveals that Solana is currently trading near major liquidation clusters, with significant short liquidations accumulating above $210 to $220 and heavy long liquidations gathering below $195. This makes the price highly sensitive, with even minor moves potentially triggering large-scale liquidations [3].

Retail trader sentiment is also skewed in favor of bullish positions, with nearly 85% of accounts holding longs compared to 15% holding shorts, resulting in a long/short ratio of 5.66. While this alignment with whale activity supports the current upward trajectory, it also makes the market vulnerable to corrections if momentum falters. A breakdown below $188 support could invite strong corrective pressure, potentially sending the price lower [3].

In conclusion, Solana’s outlook remains firmly bullish in the short to medium term, supported by whale accumulation, retail conviction, and strong technical patterns. A breakout above $210 could trigger a rally toward $229 or $263, particularly if short liquidations accelerate. However, overheating in the futures market and crowded long positions introduce volatility risks, and a dip below $195 could trigger long unwinds and amplify downward pressure [3].

Source: [1] Solana Open Interest Hits $13B All-time High (https://cointelegraph.com/news/solana-charts-1000-sol-price-target-open-interest-all-time-highs) [2] Why SOL Price Risks Drop Below $200 (https://beincrypto.com/sol-price-could-slip-back-under-200/) [3] Can Solana hit $229? - Whale's $29M bet says yes, IF... (https://ambcrypto.com/can-solana-hit-229-whales-29m-bet-says-yes-if) [4] Real-Time Solana(SOL) Liquidation Data (https://www.gate.com/crypto-market-data/funds/liquidation/sol) [5] SOL to USD: Solana Price in US Dollar (https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/solana/usd)