Solana News Today: Solana's Price Rises as Transactions Fall: Bubble or Breakthrough?

Solana's recent price surge has been overshadowed by a sharp decline in network transaction volume, raising concerns about the sustainability of its rally. According to on-chain data from CryptoQuant, daily transactions on the Solana blockchain plummeted by nearly 50% from a peak of 125 million on July 24, 2025, to approximately 64 million by early OctoberThe Financial Analyst^[1]. This negative divergence-where price gains outpace fundamental network activity-has drawn scrutiny from analysts and investors, who question whether the rally is driven by speculative momentum or organic user growth.

The drop in transactions has sparked debate about the underlying causes. While 80–90% of Solana's activity typically consists of "voting" transactions critical to network consensus, a decline in user-driven activity such as DeFi interactions, NFT transactions, or cross-chain transfers would signal weakening fundamentalsThe Financial Analyst^[1]. Analysts note that if the reduction is concentrated in non-voting transactions, it could indicate reduced ecosystem engagement. Conversely, a decline in voting activity might reflect improved network efficiency or reduced validator participation. This ambiguity complicates assessments of whether the price surge is underpinned by genuine demand or speculative fervor.

Technical analysis of Solana's price action reveals a mixed picture. As of October 10, 2025, SOL trades near $221, down 3.5% from its recent high of $240. The asset remains above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, which are trending upward-a bullish sign for short-term momentumThe Financial Analyst^[1]. However, key support levels are forming around $210–$215, and a breakdown below this threshold could trigger deeper corrections toward $190. A successful rebound above the $240–$250 range, meanwhile, might open the path to $280, a prior resistance levelThe Financial Analyst^[1].

The divergence between price and on-chain metrics has intensified as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approaches a critical decision on spot Solana ETF applications. With approval odds exceeding 99% on prediction markets, analysts suggest that ETF-related inflows could amplify institutional demand, potentially mirroring the catalysts that boosted Bitcoin and Ethereum to record highs. However, some experts caution that Solana's price may follow Bitcoin's lead rather than establish independent momentum, particularly if user activity fails to reboundCryptopolitan^[2].

Market participants are also monitoring the broader crypto environment. Bitcoin's struggle to achieve clear price discovery has created a fragile backdrop for altcoins, with Solana's volatility reflecting the sector's uncertaintyThe Financial Analyst^[1]. While technical indicators like the RSI (64.1) and MACD suggest neutral to bullish momentum, the lack of growth in real-world usage metrics-such as DeFi volume or NFT activity-remains a red flag for long-term sustainability.

The coming weeks will be pivotal in determining whether Solana's rally is a speculative bubble or a foundation for sustained growth. Investors are advised to closely track on-chain data, ETF developments, and broader market sentiment to navigate the risks and opportunities in this dynamic environmentThe Financial Analyst^[1].