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Solana (SOL) has experienced a near 10% weekly price decline, contrasting with strong on-chain metrics such as a 2.67% increase in Total Value Locked (TVL) over the past 24 hours and a 500% month-over-month surge in stablecoin growth [1]. The token has underperformed compared to Ethereum, with the SOL/ETH ratio dropping 25% in the last month, its worst monthly performance since 2022 [1]. This divergence has raised questions among investors about the sustainability of Solana’s price action despite its growing ecosystem.
The price decline coincides with broader market deleveraging, as over $4 billion in open interest has exited the crypto market in the past two weeks [1]. Ethereum has been hit harder, losing $10 billion in open interest, yet it has outperformed Solana in terms of price recovery and institutional interest. Smart money appears to be favoring Ethereum, with an increase in wallets holding over 10,000 ETH and a corresponding decline in large Solana holders [1]. Institutional activity shows mixed signals, with DeFi Dev Corp. increasing its SOL holdings by 91% month-over-month, now valued at $204 million [1]. Despite this, the price has not responded in kind, with Solana closing the month with an 11.57% gain, significantly trailing Ethereum’s 48.76% performance [1].
On the adoption front, the launch of Solana Mobile’s Seeker phone marks a potential catalyst for broader usage. The device, now shipping to over 50 countries, offers hardware-level security for private keys and features a DApp store that bypasses traditional app store fees [1]. This initiative could drive long-term adoption but has yet to translate into immediate price support. Technically, SOL has found support at the $157.70 level, a key Fibonacci retracement point [1]. A successful defense here could lead to the formation of a double-bottom pattern, potentially setting the stage for a price reversal.
Looking ahead, the market remains cautious, with the $200 level acting as a psychological barrier. The next major resistance is at $207, a level that previously capped Solana’s bull run [1]. Analysts have speculated that a potential Solana spot ETF approval in October could serve as a catalyst for renewed buying interest, although such forecasts are not yet reflected in current market conditions [1]. In the absence of a clear risk-on environment, Solana faces the challenge of regaining investor confidence while continuing to build its on-chain momentum [1].
Sources:
[1] AMBCrypto, https://ambcrypto.com/solana-heres-why-sol-faced-10-weekly-loss-despite-on-chain-growth/
[2] CoinCentral, https://coincentral.com/solana-sol-price-long-term-holders-accumulate-despite-14-weekly-drop/
[5] 99Bitcoins, https://99bitcoins.com/news/altcoins/live-crypto-news-today-weekend-of-blood-with-btc-falling-to-112k-best-crypto-to-buy-now-as-the-market-bounces-back-up/
[6] Crypto, https://cryptoadventure.com/solana-price-prediction-for-2025-sol-to-hit-500-within-3-months-as-ripple-xrp-and-little-pepe-lilpepe-target-5x-gains/
[7] AOL.com, https://www.aol.com/could-investing-10-000-solana-103000983.html
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