Solana News Today: Solana's Oversold Dilemma: Recovery or Deeper Dive?

Solana (SOL) has entered deeply oversold territory, with its Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropping below 30-a level often signaling potential price rebounds-as investors weigh the cryptocurrency's short-term prospects amid mixed technical and on-chain signals. Analysts remain split between optimism for a recovery and caution over persistent bearish momentum, with some forecasting an 80% upside by year-end if key support levels hold and buying pressure returns.

The RSI, a critical gauge of market sentiment, has fallen to 35, according to recent data, marking its lowest level since June 2023. This has sparked speculation that capitulation-where panic selling exhausts bearish pressure-may be underway, a historical precursor to rebounds. "SOL is finally hitting its capitulation moment after being a top performer for so long," noted crypto analyst Miles Deutscher, adding that the phase often clears the path for buyers to re-enter at discounted levels.

Technical indicators further highlight the precarious balance. Solana's price has stabilized near $185, defending the lower boundary of its long-term ascending channel and the 200-day EMA at $186. A sustained recovery above this level could target the $200–$210 range, with a decisive close above $216 potentially triggering a rally toward $235. Conversely, a breakdown below $180 would expose the $165 support zone, while a failure to reclaim $200 could prolong the downtrend.

On-chain flows, however, offer a glimmer of optimism. Coinglass data revealed a $25.29 million net inflow on October 11, signaling renewed accumulation by long-term holders as prices test critical support. This contrasts with recent weeks of outflows and suggests buyers are stepping in at discounted levels. Meanwhile, Solana's network resilience-processing 6,000–10,000 transactions per second while maintaining low fees-has reassured investors about its scalability, a key long-term bullish factor.

Yet bearish momentum persists. The Average Directional Index (ADX) and red Awesome Oscillator bars indicate strengthening downtrends, while declining on-chain activity raises questions about Solana's ability to sustain gains. Decentralized Finance (DeFi) Total Value Locked (TVL) has dropped by over 3% in the past 24 hours, and active addresses have fallen sharply since late May, reflecting waning user engagement. "Sellers aren't exhausted yet," warned one analyst, noting that a breakout above $216 or $222 is needed to flip near-term sentiment bullish.

Institutional confidence, however, remains a counterbalance. Major treasuries, including Pantera Capital, have accumulated billions in SOL at high averages, while Solana's TVL hit $42.4 billion in October, driven by liquidity from firms like BlackRock and PayPal. This suggests institutional players view the blockchain's infrastructure as a long-term bet, despite short-term volatility.

Looking ahead, the cryptocurrency faces a critical juncture. If bulls defend $180 and reclaim $200, the path to $230-and even $250-could open. However, prolonged weakness below $180 risks a deeper correction toward $165, with the RSI needing to recover above 45 to validate a reversal. Analysts project an 80% upside scenario by year-end, contingent on renewed buying interest and a resolution to the delayed U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) ETF approval process.

For now, Solana's fate hinges on whether market participants interpret its oversold conditions as a buying opportunity-or a warning sign of further pain.

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: [1] Solana Historical Data - Investing.com (https://www.investing.com/crypto/solana/historical-data)

[2] Solana Price Prediction. SOL Holds $180 Support As ... (https://coinedition.com/solana-price-prediction-sol-holds-180-support-as-network-resilience-draws-buyer-interest/)

[3] Solana Oversold: Is a Major Price Rebound Coming for SOL? (https://beincrypto.com/solana-oversold-due-for-rebound/)

[5] Solana Price Hits Extreme Oversold Levels After 40 (https://coingape.com/markets/solana-price-hits-extreme-oversold-levels-after-40-crash-will-sol-recover/)

[7] Solana (SOL) Price: Can $200 Support Hold as Smart Money ... (https://brazencrypto.com/2025/09/solana-sol-price-can-200-support-hold-as-smart-money-accumulates/)

[8] Why Solana's potential rally to $250 could be challenging (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/solana-price-forecast-sol-bulls-eye-250-breakout-but-declining-on-chain-activity-could-delay-move-202510081245)

[9] Solana Faces $200 Support As Profit-Taking Wave Hits the Market ... (https://cryptodaily.co.uk/2025/09/solana-faces-200-support-as-profit-taking-wave-hits-the-market-selling-pressure-intensifies)

[10] Solana Price Tests $220 Support Zone, Is a Deeper ... (https://coinpedia.org/price-analysis/solana-price-tests-220-support-zone-is-a-deeper-drop-next/)