Solana News Today: Solana ETF Could Attract $29B Initially $55.2B in First Year

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The approval of a Bitcoin ETF in 2024 marked a historic milestone for cryptocurrencies, propelling the asset class into the mainstream financial markets and solidifying its role as a store of value. BlackRock’s $IBIT fund, for instance, reached $80 billion in assets under management (AUM) at a pace outstripping traditional ETFs, highlighting robust institutional demand for crypto investment products [1]. Ethereum ETFs, while not replicating Bitcoin’s success, have also attracted significant inflows, with AUM exceeding $15.8 billion [1]. These trends underscore a growing appetite among traditional investors for exposure to digital assets, setting the stage for the next major entrant: Solana.

Solana, a high-performance blockchain network, has emerged as a leading Layer-1 platform, boasting superior transaction throughput and user activity compared to its competitors. Despite early skepticism, the asset has demonstrated resilience and innovation, particularly in decentralized finance (DeFi) and real-world asset (RWA) tokenization. Solana RWA’s market cap surged by 204% in the past six months, driven by tokenized stocks and U.S. Treasury assets [1]. This growth has intensified speculation about a Solana ETF and its potential impact on capital flows.

Analysts project that a Solana ETF could attract $29 billion in initial inflows, escalating to $55.2 billion within its first year, based on historical benchmarks from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs [1]. The rationale hinges on the AUM-to-market-cap ratios observed in earlier launches. Bitcoin ETFs captured 3.25% of its market cap at inception, rising to 5.8% after one year, while Ethereum ETFs grew from 2.41% to 4.57% [1]. Solana’s AUM-to-market-cap ratio is expected to fall between these ranges, adjusted for its smaller market size and the inclusion of staking rewards—a feature absent in Ethereum ETFs, which has been criticized for eroding investor returns by 3-4% annually [1]. Cathie Wood of ARK Invest noted this disadvantage, emphasizing staking as a key differentiator for Solana [1].

However, challenges could temper this optimism. BlackRock, which dominates 56.5% of Bitcoin ETF and 50.1% of Ethereum ETF inflows, has not yet applied for a Solana ETF, potentially limiting liquidity [1]. Market dynamics also pose risks: the crypto sector’s 137.5% rally since early 2024 reflects strong sentiment, but a reversal into a bear market could dampen demand. Additionally, existing Solana-focused funds, such as REX-Osprey’s $SSK—a hybrid ETF combining native $SOL, $jitoSOL, and 21Shares ETP shares—have already captured $130 million in AUM, demonstrating demand but complicating the ETF’s standalone potential [1].

Projections align with JPMorgan’s earlier forecast of $27 billion to $52 billion in Solana ETF inflows [1]. Recent developments, including Solana’s Anza upgrades and Firedancer consensus mechanism, are expected to enhance scalability, further bolstering its competitive edge. Regulatory clarity remains a wildcard: the SEC’s October 10 deadline for final filings has spurred nine issuers to seek approval, though BlackRock’s absence remains a gap [1].

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[1] [title] [url](https://solanafloor.com/zh/news/report-solana-etfs-5b-inflows-within-one-year-launch)

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