Solana News Today: Why Solana ETF Approval Might Not Drive a Rally: Dwindling Transactions and Rising Rivals

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) impending decision on spot Solana (SOL) exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications has sparked significant market speculation, yet analysts caution that the price reaction may be muted despite the anticipated regulatory green light. JPMorgan, in a recent report, estimates that Solana ETFs could attract approximately $1.5 billion in first-year inflows, a fraction of the $10.5 billion projected for ether (ETH) ETFs. This disparity is attributed to waning on-chain activity, investor fatigue from multiple crypto product launches, and competition from diversified crypto index funds, such as those tied to the S&P Dow Jones Indices Digital Markets 50.

Network metrics further underscore the subdued outlook. Solana's daily transactions have plummeted by roughly 50% from a peak of 125 million on July 24, 2025, to approximately 64 million as of late September, per CryptoQuant data. This decline reflects reduced retail engagement and capital reallocation to alternatives like BNB Chain, according to market observers. Shivam Thakral, CEO of Indian crypto exchange BuyUcoin, noted that the drop is "part normalization, part competitive pressure, and part sentiment shift," emphasizing that Solana's price action is likely to follow Bitcoin's directional bias rather than drive an independent rally.

The SEC's final deadline for Solana ETF approvals, expected in late October, has not triggered the same immediate price surge seen with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. While the Grayscale Solana Trust (GSOL) premium to net asset value (NAV) has collapsed from 750% last year to near zero-mirroring trends ahead of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF launches-this suggests expectations are already priced in. Analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence and Polymarket have assigned a 90-95% probability to Solana ETF approval, citing the SEC's historical approach to crypto products and the existence of a CME futures contract. However, JPMorgan highlighted weak demand signals in CME Solana futures positioning, indicating cautious market positioning.

Institutional confidence in Solana remains a key variable. A Nasdaq-listed company recently acquired $530 million worth of SOL for its treasury, signaling growing institutional adoption. This move parallels early Bitcoin accumulation by firms like MicroStrategy and Tesla, potentially reinforcing Solana's appeal as a long-term blockchain asset. Additionally, the token's price has drawn comparisons to Binance Coin (BNB), with some analysts projecting a $500 target for SOL in Q4 2025 based on fractal analysis of past rallies. However, such forecasts are contingent on ETF approval and sustained on-chain recovery.

The broader market context adds nuance. BNB Chain's DEX volume recently surpassed Solana's, driven by speculative activity around decentralized exchanges like Aster and a surge in memecoin trading. This competition for retail capital may limit Solana's upside unless institutional inflows offset declining user activity. JPMorgan also noted that corporate treasuries could divert demand away from spot ETFs, further tempering expectations.

Despite the challenges, Solana's ecosystem continues to attract developers. Founder Anatoly Yakovenko emphasized that teams like Mad Labs and Jupiter have remained committed due to Solana's robust infrastructure and resources for product development. This loyalty, coupled with tokenized real-world assets totaling $681 million on the chain as of September 30, underscores Solana's potential to diversify its use cases beyond speculative trading.

The path forward hinges on the SEC's decision and subsequent market dynamics. If approved, Solana ETFs could catalyze a price surge toward $300-$400 within weeks, as institutional liquidity enters the market. However, analysts warn of a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario, where initial gains are followed by profit-taking. Long-term growth will depend on sustained institutional accumulation, regulatory clarity, and the chain's ability to maintain efficiency amid memecoin-driven volatility.

Source: [1] JPMorgan Sees Modest Inflows for Solana ETFs Despite Likely SEC Approval (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/10/09/jpmorgan-sees-modest-inflows-for-solana-etfs-despite-likely-sec-approval)

[2] Solana Price Targets $500 As ETF Decision Looms (https://themarketperiodical.com/2025/10/07/solana-price-targets-500-as-etf-decision-looms-institutions-act/)

[3] Solana ETF Approval: Why Delays Don't Dampen Market Enthusiasm (https://markets.financialcontent.com/stocks/article/marketminute-2025-9-16-solana-etf-approval-why-delays-dont-dampen-market-enthusiasm)

[4] Here's What to Expect From Solana as Daily Transactions Fall (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/heres-expect-solana-daily-transactions-033136177.html)

[5] Solana May Track Bitcoin and See Muted Price Reaction at ETF Deadline (https://en.coinotag.com/solana-may-track-bitcoin-and-see-muted-price-reaction-at-etf-deadline-as-transactions-fall-50/)

[6] Solana News: SOL Records Unusual 50% Slump in Transactions (https://themarketperiodical.com/2025/10/09/solana-news-sol-records-unusual-50-slump-in-transactions-price-reacts/)

[10] Binance BNB Coin is on the Cusp of a Massive Rally and Here is Why (https://blocknews.com/binance-bnb-coin-is-on-the-cusp-of-a-massive-rally-and-here-is-why/)