Solana News Today: Solana's $200 Support Fails as ETF Hopes and Selling Pressure Collide

Generated by AI AgentCoin World
Tuesday, Oct 14, 2025 1:57 am ET2min read
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Aime RobotAime Summary

- Solana (SOL) fell below $200 for the first time in over a week, with a 12.1% weekly decline driven by long-term holder sales, futures liquidations, and regulatory uncertainty around a proposed spot ETF.

- Key support at $200 (EMA) and $190 is critical; a break could extend the decline to $185–$190, while holding above EMA may trigger a rebound to $220–$235.

- The SEC’s Oct 10 ETF decision and network upgrades like Alpenglow aim to boost liquidity, though DEX activity remains low with $10B TVL.

- Analysts are split: some target $300–$400 by year-end due to ETF potential, while others project $1,000 by 2030–2040, citing Solana’s under-allocation by institutions.

Solana (SOL) fell below the $200 level for the first time in over a week, trading at $205 as of Friday, according to on-chain dataSolana (SOL) Price Risks Drop Below $200 After Losing Key …[1]. The 24-hour gain of 2.8%SOL Price Risks Drop Below $200 After Futures Liquidations Surge[2] failed to offset a 12.1% weekly declineSolana (SOL) Price Risks Drop Below $200 After Losing Key …[1], reflecting broader market jitters and mounting selling pressure. Analysts attribute the drop to a combination of long-term holder (LTH) distribution, futures liquidations, and uncertainty around regulatory outcomes for a proposed spot ETF.

Data from Glassnode reveals a surge in LTH activity, with the Liveliness metric-the ratio of coin days destroyed to total coin days accumulated-reaching a 30-day highSOL Price Risks Drop Below $200 After Futures Liquidations Surge[2]. This suggests increased movement of dormant tokens, often a precursor to profit-taking or reduced conviction among long-term investors. Concurrently, the Hodler Net Position Change metric has trended negative since late AugustSOL Price Risks Drop Below $200 After Futures Liquidations Surge[2], indicating that LTHs are offloading holdings rather than accumulating.

Futures markets corroborate the bearish sentiment. SOL's long/short ratio stands at 0.97Why SOL Price Risks Drop Below $200 - BeInCrypto[4], below the neutral threshold of 1, signaling growing demand for short positions. Yesterday's futures liquidations hit a year-to-date high, with 97% of wiped positions being longsSOL Price Risks Drop Below $200 After Futures Liquidations Surge[2], exacerbating downward momentum.

The $200 level has historically served as a critical psychological barrier for

Solana
. Analysts highlight that breaking below this level could trigger a retest of the $190 support, last seen in late SeptemberSolana (SOL) Price Risks Drop Below $200 After Losing Key …[1]. The 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently around $200Solana (SOL) Price Risks Drop Below $200 After Losing Key …[1], has acted as a dynamic support during past corrections. If
SOL
holds above this EMA, a rebound toward $220–$235 could materializeSolana (SOL) Price Risks Drop Below $200 After Losing Key …[1]; however, a breach would likely extend the decline toward $185–$190Solana Price Holds Below $200 as DEX Activity Slows During …[3].

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 43Solana Price Holds Below $200 as DEX Activity Slows During …[3] underscores the bearish momentum, though some traders note that such levels have historically signaled recovery opportunitiesSolana (SOL) Price: Drops Below $200 Ahead of October ETF …[5].

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) upcoming decision on a spot SOL ETF, with a deadline of October 10Solana (SOL) Price: Drops Below $200 Ahead of October ETF …[5], looms large. A 90% approval probability, as estimated by BloombergSolana (SOL) Price: Drops Below $200 Ahead of October ETF …[5], could inject institutional capital into the market, mirroring

Bitcoin
and Ethereum's ETF-driven rallies. Meanwhile, five additional ETF applications are pending through October 2025Solana (SOL) Price: Drops Below $200 Ahead of October ETF …[5], signaling growing institutional interest.

Solana's Alpenglow upgrade, set to reduce transaction finality to 150 milliseconds, and the public test of the Firedancer validator clientSolana Price Holds Below $200 as DEX Activity Slows During …[3], aim to enhance scalability. These upgrades, coupled with rising tokenized assets in real-world assets (RWAs), could attract new liquidity. The Total Value Locked (TVL) in Solana's ecosystem, currently $10 billionSolana Price Holds Below $200 as DEX Activity Slows During …[3], reflects cautious optimism amid declining decentralized exchange (DEX) activity.

While short-term bearishness persists, long-term forecasts remain mixed. Georgii Verbitskii of TYMIO targets $300–$400 by year-endSOL Price Prediction 2025: Analyzing Growth Catalysts and …[7], citing growing institutional interest and ETF potential. Conversely, Vitaliy Shtyrkin of B2BinPay projects $1,000 by 2030–2040 if current momentum holdsSOL Price Prediction 2025: Analyzing Growth Catalysts and …[7]. Others, like Pantera Capital, highlight Solana's under-allocation by institutions (less than 1% of supplySolana (SOL) Price: Drops Below $200 Ahead of October ETF …[5]) as a growth catalyst.

Solana's near-term trajectory hinges on its ability to retest and reclaim the $200 EMA while navigating regulatory and macroeconomic headwinds. With ETF approvals and network upgrades on the horizon, the altcoin's ecosystem appears poised for a rebound-provided market sentiment stabilizes. For now, traders remain split between bearish corrections and bullish catalysts, with the October ETF decision serving as a pivotal inflection point.

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