Solana News Today: Solana's $1,000 Dream Hangs on ETF Approval and a Fading Network

Solana (SOL) has remained above the $200 level amid growing speculation about its potential to generate substantial returns. Analysts and market data indicate that the token could see exponential gains if certain technical and institutional developments unfold as anticipated. SOL has shown resilience in recent weeks, recovering over 36% from a low of $155 on Aug. 3 to an intraday high of $210 on Wednesday. This recovery has been supported by bullish chart patterns and a significant increase in open interest (OI), a key indicator of speculative activity in the derivatives market.

Technical indicators suggest that SOL could target a price of $1,000 if key resistance levels are breached. A megaphone pattern has formed on the weekly chart, signaling a potential parabolic rise if the price breaks above $330. This pattern, characterized by higher highs and lower lows, typically precedes large price movements. Additionally, a cup-and-handle pattern has been confirmed, with the price maintaining a position above the $160 level. Bulls are now focused on a breakout above $250, which could extend the rally to $1,030 based on Fibonacci retracement analysis [1].

SOL’s open interest in futures markets reached a record high of $13.68 billion on Saturday, indicating strong speculative interest. High open interest often precedes significant price moves, as seen in the period between April and July, where an 188% increase in OI was followed by a 103% surge in SOL’s price. This surge coincided with the approval of the Alpenglow upgrade, which slashes transaction finality times to 150 milliseconds and increases throughput to 107,540 transactions per second. This improvement is expected to enhance Solana’s competitiveness against Ethereum and drive institutional adoption [1].

However, recent onchain data presents a mixed picture. While Solana’s DeFi ecosystem has over $12 billion in total value locked (TVL), network activity has not scaled proportionally with price gains. Over the past 30 days, Solana’s transaction count dropped by 99%, and its number of active addresses fell by 22%. In contrast, Ethereum saw a 39% increase in transactions during the same period. Decentralized exchange (DEX) volumes on Solana have also declined, falling by 65% to $10.67 billion in the most recent week. These figures highlight the challenges Solana faces in converting price optimism into sustained onchain demand [1].

Despite these onchain headwinds, optimism surrounding the approval of a spot Solana ETF has grown significantly. The odds of approval have surged to 99% according to Polymarket, with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) requesting updated S-1 filings, signaling the process is in its final stages. A successful approval could bring substantial institutional inflows into Solana, potentially accelerating price gains. Additionally, Galaxy Digital, a publicly traded crypto firm, has tokenized its SEC-registered equity on the Solana blockchain, marking a step toward integrating traditional financial instruments with blockchain technology [2].

Analysts remain bullish on SOL’s long-term trajectory, particularly if the Alpenglow upgrade leads to broader adoption and increased DeFi activity. The token has already outperformed Bitcoin and Ethereum in recent weeks, with a 33% gain since early August. This outperformance is attributed to a rotation of capital into altcoins, driven by investors seeking higher returns in a market where Bitcoin and Ethereum have seen more modest gains. Arca’s Jeff Dorman has suggested that SOL could replicate Ethereum’s 200% rally of earlier this year if $2.6 billion in digital asset treasury inflows materialize [5].

Solana’s price action remains closely watched, particularly as it approaches key resistance levels between $210 and $250. A breakout above $215 would open the door for a move toward $260 and beyond, while a breakdown below $200 could lead to further declines toward $180. The market is also monitoring the outcomes of ongoing ETF applications and the impact of the Alpenglow upgrade on network usage and transaction volumes. These developments will be critical in determining whether Solana can sustain its upward momentum and attract further institutional investment [2].

Source:

[1] Solana Charts $1,000 SOL Price Target, Open Interest All-time Highs (https://cointelegraph.com/news/solana-charts-1000-sol-price-target-open-interest-all-time-highs)

[2] Solana Price Stuck Below $210, Breakout Ahead as ETF Approval Odds Hit 99%? (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/solana-price-stuck-below-210-144832098.html)

[3] Best Crypto to Buy This Week: Ethereum, Solana and a Rising Star (https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-1093777-20250904)

[4] Solana (SOL) Price News: Outperforms BTC, Poised to Follow Ether's 200% Rally (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/09/03/solana-outperforms-bitcoin-possibly-poised-to-follow-ether-s-recent-200-rally-says-analyst)