Solana News Today: SEC's Solana ETF Stalemate: Security vs. Commodity Classification Conundrum

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has extended its review period for spot Solana (SOL) Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) applications, pushing final decisions to October 16, 2025, and November 14, 2025, for key applicants including Bitwise, 21Shares, and Franklin Templeton. Despite these delays, market analysts and prediction markets remain optimistic, forecasting a 90-95% approval probability by late 2025 or early 2026. This cautious regulatory approach mirrors the SEC's historical process for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, with the agency emphasizing due diligence on market integrity, custody, and surveillance-sharing agreements MarketMinute^[1].

The Solana Policy Institute (SPI) advocates for classifying SOL as a commodity, aligning with the precedent set by Bitcoin and Ethereum. However, the SEC's Division of Enforcement has previously treated SOL as an unregistered security in other contexts, introducing legal ambiguity. This classification debate remains a critical hurdle, yet the existence of regulated Solana futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) listings for ETFs like Fidelity's FSOL suggest technical readiness for approval MarketMinute^[1].

Market analysts, including Bloomberg Intelligence's Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, project that Solana ETF approval could drive institutional capital inflows, mirroring the $1.5 billion estimated first-year inflows for Grayscale's proposed Solana ETF (GSOL) . Prediction markets like Polymarket reflect similar confidence, with 77-89% odds of 2025 approval. These developments have already spurred a 12% surge in trading volume for SOL, with price targets ranging from $300 to $500 by early 2026, driven by speculative trading and institutional interest TheMarketPeriodical^[3].

The potential approval of a Solana ETF is expected to benefit multiple stakeholders. Asset managers like Invesco, VanEck, and Fidelity are poised to gain through increased assets under management (AUM) and diversified crypto offerings. Meanwhile, crypto exchanges such as Coinbase and Galaxy Digital could see revenue growth from custody and trading services. Companies with significant SOL holdings, including Forward Industries and Upexi, may also experience valuation boosts from enhanced staking yields and network adoption MarketMinute^[1].

Competing smart contract platforms like Avalanche (AVAX) and Cardano (ADA) face intensified pressure if Solana gains regulatory traction. Solana's high transaction throughput and lower fees position it as a preferred candidate for institutional adoption, potentially outpacing rivals in attracting capital. However, on-chain metrics for Solana, such as declining decentralized finance (DeFi) total value locked (TVL) and active addresses, raise concerns about sustainability amid bullish price action .

Long-term price forecasts hinge on post-approval dynamics. Analysts predict a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario in the short term, with SOL potentially reaching $300-$400 by early 2026. Sustained institutional accumulation could drive the token toward $750 or $1,000 in subsequent bull cycles, contingent on network reliability and regulatory clarity MarketMinute^[1].

The broader crypto industry anticipates a transformative impact from Solana's ETF approval, akin to Bitcoin's 2024 ETF launch, which saw its price surge from $47,000 to $115,000. This regulatory milestone could accelerate Solana's integration into traditional finance, expanding its ecosystem across DeFi, NFTs, and enterprise solutions. Investors are advised to monitor SEC deadlines and post-approval capital inflows into ETFs, alongside network performance and regulatory shifts MarketMinute^[1].