Solana News Today: SEC's Solana ETF Delays Clash with 85% Approval Odds as Legal Uncertainty Persists

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has extended its review period for multiple proposed Solana (SOL) exchange-traded funds (ETFs), pushing approval deadlines to October and November 2025. The delay affects applications from major asset managers including Bitwise, 21Shares, Grayscale, Fidelity, and Franklin Templeton, with the SEC citing the need for "sufficient time to consider the proposed rule changes and the issues raised therein" title2^[2]. Despite the setbacks, market analysts and prediction platforms remain cautiously optimistic, with Polymarket assigning an 85% probability of Solana ETF approval by December 2025 and Bloomberg analysts estimating a 95% chance of approval by October 2025 title4^[4].

The SEC's regulatory approach reflects a broader shift in its handling of crypto ETFs. In a procedural update, the agency has requested issuers to withdraw individual 19b-4 filings and instead submit under a generic listing framework, streamlining the approval process for spot crypto ETFs title3^[3]. This change reduces administrative delays but does not eliminate substantive regulatory hurdles, such as the SEC's ongoing classification of Solana as a potential unregistered security. Legal ambiguity surrounding Solana's status under U.S. securities law remains a key barrier, with the SEC having previously referenced Solana in lawsuits against exchanges like Binance and Coinbase title2^[2].

Market sentiment remains resilient despite the delays. Solana's price has stabilized near $200, with technical indicators suggesting a potential breakout above critical resistance levels. Analysts attribute this resilience to growing institutional interest in Solana's ecosystem, including record total value locked (TVL) of $13.22 billion and expanding partnerships in decentralized finance (DeFi) and tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) title12^[7]. Additionally, the launch of a native yield-bearing stablecoin and increased staking activity have bolstered demand, with some projections suggesting Solana could reach $300 by year-end if ETF approval materializes .

The regulatory landscape is further complicated by the SEC's broader stance on altcoin ETFs. While Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs received approval in 2024 and 2025, respectively, the agency has maintained a cautious approach for other cryptocurrencies. Chair Gary Gensler has emphasized that Bitcoin's approval should not be interpreted as a precedent for altcoins, citing concerns over market manipulation risks, liquidity constraints, and decentralization levels title2^[2]. For Solana, which faces scrutiny over its network reliability and centralization metrics, these factors could prolong the approval timeline.

If approved, Solana ETFs could catalyze a surge in institutional capital flows, with estimates suggesting potential inflows of $3–$6 billion shortly after launch . This would mirror the impact seen with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, which drove significant price gains and market adoption. However, market participants are also bracing for a "sell the news" correction, where ETF approvals could trigger profit-taking and short-term volatility. The outcome will hinge on the SEC's final decision, with October 16 and November 14 2025 serving as critical deadlines for major applications title4^[4].