Solana News Today: Perception Gaps and On-Chain Decline Curb Solana ETF Inflows, JPMorgan Says

JPMorgan analysts project that Solana exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will attract modest first-year inflows of approximately $1.5 billion, a fraction of the $9.6 billion seen in Ethereum ETFs during their initial year of trading. The bank attributes this disparity to weaker investor perception of Solana compared to Ethereum as the dominant decentralized finance (DeFi) and smart contract platform, declining on-chain activity, and competition from diversified crypto index products such as the S&P Dow Jones Indices Digital Markets 50 . The estimate is derived from early inflows into the REX Osprey Solana Staking ETF, which garnered $350 million since its July launch, and a proportional analysis of Solana's DeFi total value locked (TVL) relative to Ethereum's .

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is expected to approve spot Solana ETF applications this week, bolstered by an existing Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) futures contract and the July launch of the first Solana ETF. However, JPMorgan warns that investor fatigue from multiple crypto ETF launches and the dominance of memecoin trading on the Solana network could further dampen demand . The bank also highlighted weak positioning in CME Solana futures and the potential for corporate treasury products to divert capital away from direct Solana ETF exposure .

Historical trends in crypto ETFs suggest a pattern of inflow normalization ahead of regulatory approvals. The Grayscale Solana Trust (GSOL) premium to net asset value (NAV) collapsed from over 750% in 2024 to near zero by October 2025, mirroring similar declines in Grayscale's Bitcoin and Ethereum trusts before their conversion to spot ETFs . This signals that market expectations for Solana ETFs may already be priced in. By contrast, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw $36 billion and $8.7 billion in first-year inflows, respectively, underscoring the significant gap in market adoption .

The SEC's recent introduction of generic listing standards for crypto ETFs has accelerated the approval process, with 16 applications pending, including those for Solana. JPMorgan analysts noted that the streamlined framework has led to a surge in new crypto ETF proposals but emphasized that Solana's ETFs face unique headwinds. These include declining on-chain metrics such as active addresses since late 2024 and a perception gap with Ethereum, which remains the benchmark for smart contract innovation .

Market reactions to the JPMorgan report were swift. Solana's price dropped 5% following the publication, with the token testing key support levels around $219. Analysts attributed the decline to concerns about limited ETF demand and broader crypto market weakness . The contrast with earlier bullish projections from a JPMorgan team led by Kenneth Worthington-estimating $2.7 billion to $5.2 billion in six to 12 months-highlights internal uncertainty about Solana's trajectory .

Investors are advised to weigh these projections against Solana's fundamentals, including its $120 billion market capitalization and competitive position in high-speed, low-cost transactions. However, JPMorgan's analysis suggests that Solana ETFs will struggle to replicate the institutional adoption seen in Bitcoin and Ethereum, with first-year inflows likely constrained by structural challenges in market perception and on-chain activity .

Source: [1] CoinDesk (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/10/09/jpmorgan-sees-modest-inflows-for-solana-etfs-despite-likely-sec-approval)

[2] The Block (https://www.theblock.co/post/374019/jpmorgan-solana-etfs-low-inflows-1-5-billion-first-year)

[3] FxStreet (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/solana-drops-5-as-jpmorgan-predicts-underwhelming-sol-etf-performance-202510091938)

[4] Coinotag (https://en.coinotag.com/jpmorgan-says-solana-etfs-could-struggle-to-match-investor-inflows-seen-by-bitcoin-ethereum-funds/)

[5] Yahoo Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-jpmorgan-thinks-solana-etfs-214018723.html)

[6] OKX (https://www.okx.com/learn/ethereum-solana-etfs-institutional-demand)