Solana News Today: Institutional Bets and SEC Clocks Could Tip Solana’s Fate

Solana (SOL) appears to be setting up for a potential rally, with traders and analysts closely watching the price action and onchain metrics for signs of renewed momentum. While the token has struggled to maintain levels above $200 in recent weeks, some key factors could tip the balance in favor of a bullish breakout, particularly if institutional support and regulatory clarity materialize.

Current data indicates that Solana's onchain activity has weakened, with a 17% drop in network fees compared to the previous week. This decline is notable when compared to the rising transaction levels and fees seen on other blockchains, including BNB Chain and Ethereum’s layer-2 solutions. Despite Solana’s relatively high total value locked (TVL), its chain revenue has declined 91% from January’s peak, a decline that coincided with the launch of speculative tokens like the Trump (TRUMP) memecoin.

Perpetual futures data also reveals a muted demand for bullish leverage, with the annualized premium for SOL futures currently at 10%, a level that suggests balanced, rather than aggressive, market positioning. This is somewhat at odds with the 39% price gain recorded over the past two months. Meanwhile, Binance’s top-trader long-to-short ratio has shifted sharply toward bearish positioning, indicating caution among major market participants as Solana nears the $200 level.

However, there are signs of growing institutional interest in Solana. Firms such as Galaxy Digital, Multicoin Capital, and Jump Crypto are working to raise $1 billion for a Solana-focused digital asset treasury initiative. Despite the endorsement from the Solana Foundation, the market has yet to respond with significant momentum. The final catalyst for a potential rally may come from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which is expected to make a decision on multiple Solana spot ETF filings by mid-October. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas has estimated the approval odds at over 90%, which could provide a major boost to investor sentiment.

Looking at the broader picture, a combination of stronger onchain activity, increased demand for bullish leverage, and a favorable regulatory outcome could create the necessary conditions for Solana to test its previous all-time highs and potentially surpass them. The path to a $250 price target, however, remains contingent on these factors aligning, and current fundamentals suggest that a sustainable rally is not yet in the cards.

Source: [1] SOL Rally To $250 May Happen In 2025 (https://cointelegraph.com/news/sol-could-rally-to-250-if-three-key-factors-align)