Solana News Today: Bears Close In on Solana as Death Cross and Dwindling OI Signal $120 Risk

Solana (SOL) has fallen below $150 for the first time since late 2024, intensifying bearish sentiment across the cryptocurrency market as technical indicators and derivatives data point to further downside. The token, which hit an all-time high of $295.83 in December 2024, now trades at $153.63, down 2.25% in the last 24 hours. Analysts warn that a breakdown below key support levels could trigger a 25% decline toward $120, compounding risks for investors already grappling with macroeconomic uncertainty.

Derivatives data underscores the weakening bullish momentum. Open Interest (OI) in Solana futures has plummeted to $7.72 billion from $14.83 billion in mid-October, reflecting a sharp retreat by retail traders amid the October 10 deleveraging event that liquidated $19 billion in crypto assets. The suppressed OI suggests limited short-term buying pressure, with traders adopting a wait-and-see approach until risk-on sentiment returns. Meanwhile, institutional demand via ETFs has not translated into price stability.

Despite $500 million in inflows for the Bitwise Solana Staking ETF (BSOL) and $4 million for Grayscale's Solana ETF in the past week, SOL has dropped 12% this week.

Technical analysis paints a grim picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 40 on the daily chart, signaling weak momentum, while the 50-day and 200-day EMAs form a "death cross", confirming a sustained downtrend. A descending triangle pattern and a falling wedge structure on the SOL/USDT chart indicate potential for a 22% breakout to $200 if bulls regain control—but only if the price breaks above the upper trendline as analysts project. Conversely, a breakdown below $150 exposes the token to $126 and $100 levels, with historical data suggesting heavy accumulation zones below $100.

Market sentiment remains bearish, amplified by a crypto Fear & Greed Index reading of 22 ("Extreme Fear") and a 3.81% drop in the broader crypto market cap to $3.33 trillion. Over $553 million in futures liquidations occurred between November 13–14, with Solana accounting for $47 million in long-position liquidations as Bitcoin's 6% drop below $100,000 triggered margin calls according to CoinMarketCap. The negative spiral is further fueled by thin liquidity, with SOL's 24-hour turnover ratio at 0.0913, heightening volatility risks according to CoinMarketCap.

Long-term projections are equally concerning. Solana has completed a five-wave upward movement since early 2023 and is now in a corrective phase, with wave C potentially extending the decline to $59–$69 if historical Fibonacci ratios hold. While institutional staking through ETFs and the 72% staked supply provide some structural support, rising real yields globally have diminished the appeal of staking rewards relative to U.S. Treasuries. Analysts caution that any stabilization above $140 will require a Bitcoin recovery above $100,000 and renewed institutional buying according to CoinMarketCap.