Solana News Today: Bear Flag and Failing Support Signal Solana's $99 Dilemma

Solana's SOL price faces mounting pressure as technical indicators and on-chain metrics suggest a near-term correction below $150. Despite strong initial inflows into newly launched spot Solana ETFs, recent outflows and weakening network fundamentals have triggered bearish sentiment. Data from Nansen shows a 6% drop in active addresses and a 16% decline in network fees over the past week, while total value locked (TVL) on Solana has fallen 20% month-to-date to $9.1 billion. The bear flag pattern on the six-hour chart, formed after a sharp decline from $170 to $140, projects a potential drop to $99 if support levels fail.

The recent $36 million Upbit hot wallet breach on November 27 has further exacerbated volatility. The South Korean exchange suspended Solana deposits and withdrawals, disrupting liquidity and amplifying short-term selling pressure. While Solana's price briefly rose 3% post-announcement, the broader market remains cautious, with derivatives open interest (OI) stagnating around $7.2 billion-a 30% decline from September's peak. Analysts like MR Ape note that $145 has repeatedly failed as a support level, signaling waning momentum as the token approaches key resistance.

Inflows into Solana ETFs have been uneven. Bitwise's BSOL ETF dominated with $424 million in cumulative inflows as of November 19, representing 89% of total assets, yet recent outflows-such as the $8.2 million net withdrawal on November 27-highlight institutional hesitancy. The ETF landscape contrasts with retail demand, which remains subdued. Futures OI for Solana has dropped to $6.95 billion, below the $17 billion high in September, indicating reduced speculative activity.

Technical analysis underscores the bearish bias. SOL/USD is trading below the 50-day EMA at $173 and the 200-day EMA at $180, with the RSI at 38 and MACD in negative territory according to analysis. A break below $120 could trigger a test of $110, where prior buyers may re-enter, but sustained recovery hinges on rising OI and renewed ETF inflows. Forward Industries, the largest institutional Solana holder, now faces $668 million in unrealized losses as its holdings trade below the $230 average purchase price .

Market observers remain divided. While ETFs provide a structural tailwind, the Upbit hack and weak on-chain metrics suggest further consolidation. A rebound above $166-where the descending trend line from $261 meets the SuperTrend indicator-could reignite bullish momentum, but until then, sellers appear in control.