Solana/Mexican Peso Market Overview

• SOLMXN traded in a tight range for most of the day before a late-night breakout
• Momentum accelerated overnight with a key 15-minute bullish reversal candle
• Volatility picked up in early morning ET as price tested and cleared 4500 MXN
• Volume remained low overall, but a sharp increase coincided with the breakout
• RSI signaled moderate momentum, while Bollinger Bands showed early volatility contraction

The Solana/Mexican Peso (SOLMXN) pair opened at 4477.0 MXN at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-12 and closed at 4471.0 MXN at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-13. The 24-hour high was 4515.0 MXN, and the low was 4429.0 MXN. Total volume traded was 4.922 SOL, and notional turnover was 22223.87 MXN.

Structure & Formations

The pair spent the majority of the session consolidating near 4477 MXN, forming a narrow range of just 48 MXN. A key 15-minute bullish reversal candle formed overnight as price broke out of this consolidation. This candle displayed a bearish open at 4484 MXN but closed higher at 4515 MXN, indicating strong buying pressure. Following this, a slight pullback occurred, forming a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 4483 MXN. A subsequent bearish candle confirmed the retracement level and signaled a potential near-term top in the 4500–4483 MXN range.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages remained closely aligned, supporting the range-bound structure. As price broke above 4500 MXN, the 20-period MA crossed slightly above the 50-period MA, signaling a short-term bullish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-day and 200-day moving averages were not available, but the 100-day MA would likely be positioned just above 4450 MXN, serving as a potential dynamic support zone.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained relatively flat during the consolidation phase but showed a positive divergence as price broke out overnight, suggesting momentum was building on the long side. The RSI, which had remained neutral in the 40–60 range during consolidation, surged past 60 as price approached 4515 MXN, signaling an overbought condition. A subsequent drop back into the 50–60 range indicated fading momentum, though not oversold conditions yet.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy leverages the 15-minute bullish reversal candle and the breakout above the 4500 MXN level as a potential entry trigger. A stop-loss could be placed below the 4429 MXN low to manage risk, with a target aligned with the 38.2% retracement level at 4483 MXN. Given the low volume and moderate RSI signal, this trade may work best as a short-term countertrend trade, closing when the RSI drops below 50 or when price fails to hold above the 4483 MXN retracement. This strategy would require a confirmation candle above the retracement level to ensure a more reliable signal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed early volatility contraction during the consolidation phase, with price tightly fitting within the 4471–4483 MXN range. As price broke out of this range overnight, volatility began to expand, with the bands stretching out to accommodate the move to 4515 MXN. Price currently resides just below the upper band at 4471 MXN, suggesting the recent breakout may not yet be over. A sustained close above 4500 MXN could see the upper band reposition higher, offering new resistance targets.

Volume & Turnover

Volume remained exceptionally low throughout the session, with over 50% of the 15-minute candles showing 0 volume. However, a notable spike in volume occurred at 21:00 ET, coinciding with the first downward move from 4477 MXN to 4429 MXN, indicating a bearish catalyst. Another volume increase at 01:30 ET aligned with the bullish breakout, suggesting real buying interest at that level. Turnover was largely in line with volume, with no significant divergences reported. This suggests price and volume moved in tandem, increasing the reliability of the breakout signal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements applied to the key overnight swing from 4429 MXN to 4515 MXN identified several levels. The 38.2% retracement at 4483 MXN acted as a dynamic support level and saw price consolidate briefly. The 61.8% retracement level at around 4453 MXN could serve as a near-term support target if the current pullback continues. These levels suggest the market may be entering a more defined structure, offering clearer entry and exit points for short-term traders.

Looking ahead, the market may continue to test the 4483 MXN retracement level for consolidation before either extending the current pullback or attempting another breakout. Traders should remain cautious as low volume and moderate momentum suggest the market may lack conviction in any near-term direction. A close below the 4429 MXN level would signal a stronger bearish bias, but a retest of 4515 MXN with increased volume could confirm a breakout attempt. Investors are advised to monitor both RSI and volume closely for signs of exhaustion or strength.