Solana Market Overview: Volatility Wanes as Sellers Gain Ground

• Solana (SOLUSD) opened at $211.89, peaked at $212.42, and closed at $208.19, down 1.77%.
• A bearish engulfing pattern emerged near the 24-hour high, followed by consolidation.
• Volatility expanded early, but volume dried up as prices drifted lower in the final 12 hours.
• RSI suggests oversold conditions late in the session, with MACD showing weakening momentum.
• Price broke below the 20-period SMA on the 15-min chart, signaling potential bearish bias.

SOLUSD opened at $211.89 on 2025-09-03 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $212.42, and closed at $208.19 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-04. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 184.99, with a notional turnover of approximately $38,180.89. The price action displayed a bearish bias as sellers took control after an early false breakout attempt.

Structure & Formations

A bearish engulfing candle appeared at 16:30 ET as price declined from $212.42 to $210.66, followed by a series of red candles pulling the price lower. The formation suggests short-term bearish momentum. A doji formed at 19:30 ET ($209.4) and again at 22:30 ET, indicating indecision. Key support levels emerged at $209.4 and $207.11, where price found brief consolidation, while resistance remained at $211.0 and $211.99. The final 15-minute candle closed at $208.19, down 2.03% from the previous 12:00 ET open.

Moving Averages and MACD/RSI

The 15-minute 20-period SMA crossed below the 50-period SMA early in the session, confirming a bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA sits at $208.14, closely aligning with the 24-hour close. MACD showed negative divergence after 20:00 ET, reinforcing the bearish trend. RSI reached an oversold level of 28 at 05:15 ET and remained in oversold territory for several hours, suggesting potential for a bounce, though bearish pressure remains strong.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly in the early part of the session, reflecting heightened volatility. Price remained near the lower band for most of the second half of the day, indicating bearish bias and a lack of conviction in upward movement. The narrowing of bands in the final hours suggests fading volatility, which could precede a breakout or continuation.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked at 00:15 ET ($211.0) and again at 05:15 ET ($207.11), but remained muted in the final hours. Turnover confirmed the price action, with notable selling pressure observed after 05:00 ET as the price dropped below $207.11. A divergence appeared in the 15-minute chart as price moved lower with shrinking volume and turnover, signaling a potential exhaustion of the bearish trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the high of $212.42 to the low of $206.99 showed key levels at 38.2% ($209.93) and 61.8% ($208.53). Price found support near the 61.8% level before falling slightly below. On the 15-minute chart, recent swings from $210.66 to $209.4 and back to $209.86 showed retracement levels at $209.54 and $209.64, which were tested but failed to hold.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential strategy for backtesting would involve taking short positions on a close below the 20-period SMA on the 15-minute chart, coupled with a bearish engulfing candlestick and confirmation from RSI entering oversold territory. Stop-loss could be placed just above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, while take-profit targets would be set based on subsequent support levels. The Bollinger Band strategy—selling when price touches the lower band and holding until a reversal or a retest of the upper band—could also be evaluated for its efficacy in trending environments.