Solana Market Overview – 24-Hour Analysis

• Solana’s 24-hour low of $197.00 marked a bearish pivot.
• Price action showed a strong rejection at $203.09, forming bearish continuation patterns.
• RSI and MACD confirmed bearish momentum with no signs of overbought conditions.
• Volatility expanded early in the session, with Bollinger Bands reflecting heightened price swings.
• High volume at key levels suggests potential for further consolidation or retesting.

Solana (SOLUSD) opened at $204.40 on 2025-08-31 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $205.87 and a low of $197.00 before closing at $198.96 on 2025-09-01 at 12:00 ET. Total 24-hour volume was 997.82 SOL, and notional turnover was $204,793.55. The session was marked by sharp intraday swings and uneven volume distribution.

Structure & Formations

Price experienced a sharp decline from $205.87 to $197.00 within a 2.5-hour window, forming a bearish flag pattern. A key support was identified near $197.00, which held briefly, followed by a modest bounce. A bearish engulfing pattern appeared around $200.53 to $198.97, suggesting further downward bias. A doji near $198.96 on the last 15-minute candle hinted at indecision at the 24-hour close.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed below the 20-period and 50-period SMAs, reinforcing bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA is at $201.50, acting as a strong overhead resistance. The 200-period SMA remains at $199.50, indicating a potential pivot zone for the next 24 hours.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative after the key bearish move, confirming bearish momentum. RSI reached levels below 30 at $197.00, indicating oversold conditions, but failed to trigger a strong reversal. This divergence suggests a possible continuation of the downtrend before any corrective rally.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened during the sharp drop from $205.87 to $197.00, indicating heightened volatility. Price closed near the lower band at $198.96, suggesting a potential bounce, but with a strong bearish bias if key support at $197.00 breaks.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the breakdown from $205.87 to $197.00, with a large 15-minute turnover spike of $12,725.55. Turnover and volume aligned with key price moves, validating the bearish breakdown. A sharp drop in volume after the close suggests a potential pause in selling pressure, but caution is warranted if volume remains subdued during a potential bounce.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the key swing from $197.00 to $205.87, the 61.8% level is at $201.06, which acted as resistance during the 24-hour session. The 38.2% level is at $199.65, currently near the 24-hour close, suggesting a possible consolidation or retest before the next directional move.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy involving long entry at the 38.2% Fibonacci level ($199.65) with a stop-loss at the 23.6% level ($200.15) and a take-profit at the 61.8% level ($201.06) could offer a defined-risk trade. This approach aligns with price action and volume spikes observed in the breakdown and bounce phase. The MACD and RSI confirmed the bearish bias but allowed for a short-term countertrend trade as long as the 20-period SMA holds above $199.50.