Solana's Flow Breakdown: ETF Outflows and MVRV Signal Deeper Correction

Solana has confirmed a major technical breakdown with a bearish head and shoulders pattern. The key support zone has been lost, invalidating the prior consolidation base that had supported multiple rebounds in 2025. This shift in market structure marks the failure of the prior uptrend and signals that rallies are more likely to be sold rather than extended.

The immediate price impact is severe. SOL is trading near $81.3, down roughly 11.9% over the past seven days and more than 45% from its late-2025 high above $170. The measured move target from the confirmed pattern points toward the $42 area, aligning with a long-term horizontal demand zone. From current levels, that implies a potential drawdown of more than 60%.

This breakdown is part of a broader altcoin sell-off. As Bitcoin tested its 2024 breakout base, selling pressure cascaded across high-beta assets, tightening liquidity and accelerating liquidations. The former support zone around $120–$125 has now flipped to overhead resistance, capping upside attempts unless reclaimed with strong volume.

On-Chain & Liquidity Flow: The Bearish Confirmation

The breakdown is confirmed by on-chain metrics showing extreme market conditions. Solana's Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio is at 0.65, its lowest level since September 2023. This signals that the majority of holders are underwater, a condition that typically reduces sell-side urgency as participants wait for price to recover. While this can precede stabilization, it also confirms the depth of the recent correction.

At the same time, exchange flows reveal active distribution. Solana ETFs saw $6.7 million in outflows yesterday, marking the second-worst day for the funds this year. This institutional selling pressure compounds the on-chain losses and provides a direct liquidity drain, making it harder for price to find a floor.

Together, these flows paint a picture of a market in a deep, but potentially stabilizing, correction. The low MVRV suggests the worst of the panic selling may be over, while the ETF outflows show that selling pressure from larger players is still present. The key will be whether accumulation resumes to offset these outflows.

Catalysts & Key Levels: The Path Forward

The immediate battleground is the $95 support zone. A decisive break below it exposes the next level at $83, then the psychological $75 mark. The weekly close will be a key technical signal; failing to reclaim the $93-$95 resistance zone could drag price back toward the $70 area, triggering a deeper correction toward the $40-$42 target.

On-chain data suggests the market is in a fragile stabilization phase. Solana's MVRV ratio is at 0.65, its lowest since September 2023, signaling extreme underwater sentiment. This condition typically reduces sell-side urgency and can precede a bottom, but it also confirms the depth of the recent correction. The critical flow catalyst is whether accumulation resumes to offset persistent distribution.

Exchange flows remain a direct pressure point. Solana ETFs saw $6.7 million in outflows yesterday, marking the second-worst day for the funds this year. This institutional selling compounds on-chain losses and provides a liquidity drain that makes it harder for price to find a floor. The path forward hinges on whether this outflow pressure can be absorbed by the underlying market.