Solana ETF Approval Odds Rise to 88% After CME Futures Launch

The approval of a Solana ETF has moved closer to reality, with the Cboe filing for a rules change with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. This development has sparked discussions among analysts about the potential impact on the price of Solana (SOL).

On March 17, the CME debuted Solana Futures trading, a move that analysts viewed as a significant step towards ETF approval. The exchange offers two SOL Futures products: a standard futures contract representing 500 SOL and a ‘micro’ alternative with 25 SOL for every contract. This launch made SOL the third cryptocurrency to trade on CME Futures after Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Mathew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, stated that the CME Futures launch was a ‘step closer’ for the likely U.S. spot ETF greenlight. However, he also pointed out that while the CME Futures wasn’t necessary for ETF approval, it would still boost its odds. The odds of SOL ETF approval in 2025 jumped from 81% to 88% after the launch, according to a prediction site.

Despite the bullish updates, analysts predict that SOL’s price could remain stuck in a range in the medium term. According to crypto trader Cryp Nuevo, SOL could fluctuate between $120 — $175 if BTC holds above $77K. However, he also cautioned that downside risk couldn’t be overruled, especially a dip below $100 if Bitcoin dominance climbed higher to 63% and above.

The bearish grip in SOL markets was also evident by the weighted sentiment, which has been overly negative for most of Q1 2025. Meanwhile, considerable liquidity was above $130 as traders opened shorts around the level. This could attract price action in the short term in case of a liquidity-driven pump.

In summary, while the approval of a Solana ETF has moved closer to reality, analysts predict that the mid-term price range for SOL will likely remain within $120-$175. This prediction suggests that despite the potential approval of an ETF, the price of SOL may not experience a significant surge. The broader market recovery and stability around key averages have also influenced the sentiment, with Bitcoin finding stability around its 200-day average. The consolidation of SOL's price above the $220 zone further supports the analysts' predictions, indicating a cautious yet optimistic outlook for the cryptocurrency's future.