Solana ETF Approval Faces Uncertainty Despite 90% Odds

Seven asset managers, including Fidelity, Grayscale, and VanEck, have recently filed or updated their applications for a Solana spot ETF, aiming to capitalize on the momentum generated by the Bitcoin ETF. However, the path to approval is fraught with challenges and uncertainties. The process involves numerous adjustments and clarifications, with the SEC requiring detailed information on redemption conditions, security methods, and reward distribution. This complexity is further compounded by the inclusion of "staking" in the filings, a mechanism that represents the future for Solana but is often misunderstood by regulators.

James Seyffart, an ETF analyst, doubts a quick approval despite precedents like Bitcoin and Ether. He highlights the slowness of the entire process, noting that it took more than ten years for Bitcoin to obtain its own ETF. The addition of staking in the filings complicates things further, as this model, if passed, could disrupt the traditional codes of crypto ETFs. The SEC's engagement with issuers and the modifications required in the application documents suggest that the regulatory body is taking a cautious approach, which could extend the timeline for approval.

The evolution of the crypto market is not enough to break down administrative barriers. The texts remain the same, and the timelines drag on. Even with the pressure from financial giants, the SEC keeps control of the pace. Seyffart remains skeptical, stating that it is only a matter of time before the United States has both ETH and SOL. However, this sentence sums up the current mood well: everything is conceivable, but nothing is confirmed. Meanwhile, financial product issuers are biting their nails. The slowness is no longer a surprise, but it remains an obstacle. Crypto evolves, regulators stall. Solana, though ready to revolutionize the sector, is still waiting for its moment.

In April, the estimated odds of the SEC approving a Solana ETF in 2025 were increased to 90% by Bloomberg Intelligence. This optimism is shared by other analysts, who suggest that approval could come within the next two to four months if regulatory talks proceed smoothly. However, the path to approval remains uncertain, with regulatory scrutiny and strategic amendments by issuers playing a crucial role. The SEC's recent move to require ETF issuers to modify their S-1 documents has sparked speculation that formal approval may be just days or weeks away. This development, along with the updated filings, indicates that the approval process is progressing. However, it is important to note that the inclusion of staking in the ETFs adds a layer of complexity that could delay the approval process.