Solana's Emerging Bull Case: Can Stronger Holder Sentiment and Rising Volume Fuel an 84% Price Rally?

In late 2025, Solana (SOL) has emerged as a standout performer in the crypto market, driven by a confluence of on-chain momentum, institutional adoption, and technical bullishness. With its network processing $1.6 trillion in spot trading volume in 2025-surpassing centralized exchanges like Bybit and Coinbase-Solana's ecosystem has demonstrated resilience and scalability. This surge in activity, coupled with favorable technical indicators and shifting holder sentiment, has sparked renewed optimism about its price trajectory. But can these factors truly catalyze an 84% rally? Let's dissect the data.

On-Chain Volume and Holder Sentiment: A Tale of Two Trends

Solana's on-chain volume in 2025 reflects a seismic shift in decentralized finance (DeFi) activity. Decentralized exchanges (DEXs) on the network processed $1.5 trillion in trading volume year-over-year, a 57% increase and an all-time high. This growth was fueled by high-volume dApps like Pump.fun and Raydium, as well as institutional demand for stablecoin settlements, particularly via USDC integrations. By December 2025, Solana's stablecoin supply had ballooned to $14.8 billion, more than doubling from the prior year- a sign of growing utility in cross-border payments and asset tokenization.

Holder sentiment, however, tells a more nuanced story. While the Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio hit a seven-month high in late 2025, signaling potential overvaluation, long-term holder behavior suggests accumulation rather than panic selling. Glassnode data reveals that large holders (wallets with >10,000 SOL) increased their average holding duration by 22% in Q4 2025, indicating confidence in the asset's long-term prospects. This divergence between short-term valuation risks and long-term accumulation is a critical nuance for investors to consider.

Technical Indicators: A Bullish Confluence

From a technical perspective, Solana's price action in late 2025 has been nothing short of compelling. In October, the asset formed a golden cross-a bullish signal where the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day average-while the MACD indicator showed a bullish crossover. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovered around 40.2 at the time, suggesting oversold conditions and potential for a rebound.

More recently, Solana's price action near the $200 support level revealed another layer of strength. Despite a surge in volume, prices failed to break below key support, instead forming a volume-price divergence that analysts interpret as accumulation rather than distribution. As of December 31, 2025, Solana traded at $125.30, up 1.69% on the day, with an RSI of 51.64-a neutral reading that leaves room for further upward movement.

Institutional Adoption: A Catalyst for Mainstream Momentum

Institutional confidence in Solana has also reached new heights. U.S. spot Solana ETFs recorded a three-day inflow streak, including $2.29 million on December 31, 2025. This follows a broader trend: Solana's ecosystem generated $2.39 billion in app revenue in 2025, with seven dApps surpassing $100 million in revenue each. The launch of these ETFs, combined with partnerships like Visa's USDC integration, has positioned Solana as a bridge between traditional finance and Web3, attracting a new wave of capital.

Risks and Divergences: A Cautionary Note

No bull case is without its shadows. Solana's NVT ratio, while a leading indicator of valuation risks, must be contextualized. A seven-month high in this metric suggests that market capitalization growth has outpaced transactional demand-a pattern historically associated with near-term corrections. Additionally, while 84% of traders expect a bullish continuation, market sentiment can shift rapidly in response to macroeconomic factors or regulatory developments.

Conclusion: A Calculated Bet on Momentum

Solana's 2025 performance has been a masterclass in on-chain and technical momentum. The interplay of robust DEX volume, institutional inflows, and favorable technical indicators paints a compelling case for further appreciation. However, the NVT divergence and macroeconomic headwinds necessitate a measured approach. For investors willing to navigate these risks, the combination of holder accumulation and institutional adoption could indeed fuel an 84% price rally-provided the broader market remains in a bullish phase.

As the crypto winter of 2024 fades into memory, Solana's ecosystem has proven its mettle. Whether it can sustain this momentum into 2026 will depend on its ability to balance innovation with stability-a challenge it appears well-equipped to meet.