Solana/Argentine Peso Market Overview (SOLARS)

• Price surged 25.5% during the session, with a sharp rebound from a 24-hour low near 366,868.
• Volatility spiked mid-session, but volume remained muted (<$1M) despite large price swings. • A bearish divergence in RSI hints at possible near-term exhaustion after a sharp rally. • Key support at 367,271 held into the close, with a potential test of 363,000–368,000 ahead. • Bollinger Bands expanded sharply after 19:30 ET, reflecting renewed trader uncertainty.

Session Summary and Open/Close Metrics

The Solana/Argentine Peso (SOLARS) pair opened at 371,000 on 2025-09-18 12:00 ET and surged to a 24-hour high of 393,100 before retreating to close at 367,271 at 12:00 ET. The session saw a low of 317,908 and a total volume of 142.79 units traded, with a notional turnover of approximately $51.8 million. This marks a significant price move, though volume remains relatively light compared to the magnitude of the swings.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a sharp bullish reversal from a multi-hour bearish breakdown near 366,868, with a bearish engulfing pattern forming around the 385,208–381,852 range. A doji appeared at 381,991–381,967, signaling indecision. Key support levels include 367,271 (recent close), 363,000 (61.8% fib of the 366,868–393,100 move), and 358,000 (38.2% fib). Resistance is now concentrated between 377,530 and 381,368, which will need to hold for further bullish momentum to continue.

Moving Averages and Momentum

Short-term 15-minute moving averages (20-period and 50-period) crossed over multiple times during the session, suggesting high volatility rather than a clear trend. The 50-period MA currently sits near 377,000, above the close of 367,271. The 20-period MA is even higher, indicating the price is currently below its short-term mean. The daily 50-period, 100-period, and 200-period MAs remain untested, but with a close near 367,000, price is likely forming a near-term base below its daily average.

MACD and RSI Insights

The MACD line turned negative as the rally stalled, with the histogram contracting into negative territory after 20:00 ET. This suggests bearish momentum is gaining. The RSI hit 70+ three times during the rally, but failed to hold above 60, showing a bearish divergence from price. A close below 368,000 could see RSI test oversold territory around 30, offering potential support-based entry points for contrarian traders.

Bollinger Bands expanded sharply during the mid-session rally, with the close near the lower band at 367,271. This points to renewed volatility and a potential setup for a rebound or further consolidation.

Volume and Turnover Divergences

Notable volume spikes were observed during the 21:30–22:30 ET period, with a large candle forming from 393,100 to 382,793 on just 0.856 units traded. This suggests aggressive selling with limited liquidity, hinting at a possible short-term exhaustion. Turnover spiked to $5.5 million in that period, but volume remained low, indicating a possible short-covering or liquidation event. The final 15 minutes showed a 1.059-unit sell-off with minimal price movement, again pointing to a lack of strong conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

The most recent 15-minute swing (366,868 to 393,100) shows a 61.8% retracement at 380,000, which acted as a key pivot. Price tested this level multiple times before breaking lower. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the 317,908–393,100 move is near 363,000, a level likely to be tested in the next 24–48 hours. A break below that could see a deeper pullback toward 358,000 or 353,000, depending on macroeconomic sentiment.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described aims to exploit sharp, high-volatility moves by entering long on a breakout above 380,000 and short on a breakdown below 368,000. Given the current setup—where the price is consolidating near 367,271 and RSI is showing bearish divergence—this strategy may perform best with a short bias. A tight stop-loss near 368,000 and a target of 363,000 could offer risk-reward balance in the near term. However, if the 380,000 level holds, a longer-term bullish trade may be warranted.