Solana's $2B Unlock Looms: Hold, Short, or Sell SOL?

Solana (SOL), the sixth-largest cryptocurrency, has been facing a series of challenges recently, with the LIBRA memecoin fiasco and a significant token unlock event adding to the selling pressure. The upcoming unlock, worth over $2 billion, has sparked debate among investors and analysts about whether to hold, short, or sell SOL.

Last month, an anonymous crypto commentator, artchick.eth, outlined Solana's token unlock schedule for 2025. Over the next three months, more than 15 million SOL tokens, worth over $7 billion, will enter the circulating supply. The analyst warned that this could lead to additional selling pressure, as companies like Galaxy, Pantera, and Figure are in line to extract unrealized gains once the unlocks occur.

Galaxy's managing director, Kelly Greer, tried to dismiss the current FUD surrounding the unlocks, pointing out that the upcoming unlock is only 2.31% of the total supply and market cap. Greer also highlighted that Solana registered $3.6 billion in 24-hour spot volumes, suggesting that the market could absorb the selling pressure.

However, futures traders have been shorting Solana aggressively, with the current short-long ratio at 4:1. This has led some analysts to question whether shorting Solana is the obvious trade. From a technical perspective, Solana's daily chart shows that prices have dropped 30% over the past month, and losing $180 support could exacerbate selling pressure, pushing prices down to the order block between $168-$155.

The upcoming token unlock event has raised concerns about the potential impact on Solana's price and market sentiment. While some analysts believe that the market can absorb the selling pressure, others warn that the unlock could lead to further price declines. As the event approaches, investors and traders will need to carefully consider their positions and make informed decisions based on their risk tolerance and market outlook.