Is Solana's $145 Resistance a Buyable Level or a Distribution Zone?

The Solana (SOL) price action in late December 2025 has been a masterclass in market psychology, with the $145 level emerging as both a battleground and a barometer for the network's broader health. On one hand, institutional flows, derivatives activity, and technical indicators suggest a coordinated push for a breakout. On the other, on-chain metrics like declining wallet creation and elevated NVT ratios hint at a fragile foundation. This article dissects the tension between bullish momentum and weakening fundamentals to determine whether $145 is a golden opportunity or a trap for buyers.

Bullish Momentum: Institutional Confidence and Derivatives Frenzy

The case for Solana's $145 resistance as a buyable level rests on robust institutional participation and derivatives-driven optimism. Four consecutive days of net inflows into Solana-focused ETFs, including a $16.54 million surge on a single day, underscored renewed confidence from smart money. Meanwhile, futures open interest ballooned to $7.26 billion, with the long-to-short ratio flipping to 52.55%, signaling aggressive positioning for a breakout.

Technical indicators also painted a cautiously optimistic picture. Solana broke out of a multi-month descending channel, supported by a bullish MACD and rising histogram bars. A confirmed close above $145 would target the 50-day EMA at $152 and the 200-day EMA at $172. Derivatives traders were already pricing in this scenario, with perpetual futures funding rates averaging 0.0224%-a sign of strong long-side dominance.

Weakening Fundamentals: Network Activity and NVT Divergence

Yet, the fundamentals tell a different story. Solana's on-chain metrics revealed a stark divergence from its price action. New weekly wallet creation plummeted from 30.2 million in November to 7.3 million by early January 2026, raising questions about the sustainability of the rally. This decline in user adoption contrasts sharply with previous price surges, which were underpinned by growing network participation.

The Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio, a key metric for assessing crypto valuations, also spiked to elevated levels. This suggests that Solana's price growth has outpaced its transactional demand, creating a valuation risk. Additionally, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) remained negative at -0.13, indicating persistent selling pressure despite bullish derivatives activity.

Funding Rates and Liquidation Dynamics: A Ticking Clock?

Perpetual futures funding rates, while positive, showed signs of fatigue. The average rate dipped from 0.005% to 0.003% over 24 hours, signaling weakening bullish conviction. Liquidation data further complicated the picture. Traders were heavily exposed at $122.2 (support) and $130.4 (resistance), with $149.74 million in short positions vulnerable to forced closures. A failure to reclaim $130 could trigger a cascade of liquidations, dragging the price below $120 and invalidating the triple-bottom pattern.

The Verdict: A Delicate Balance

Solana's $145 resistance is neither a guaranteed buy nor a definitive distribution zone-it's a crossroads. Institutional flows and derivatives activity suggest a well-capitalized bid for a breakout, but the lack of on-chain adoption and elevated NVT ratios expose structural weaknesses. If the network can reignite user growth and align it with derivatives-driven optimism, $145 could mark the start of a new bull phase. However, a breakdown below key support levels-particularly $128 or the psychological $100 level-would likely expose the fragility of the current rally.

For now, the market is in a holding pattern. Traders must watch for a decisive close above $145 or a breakdown below $130. Until then, the $145 level remains a test of Solana's ability to decouple its token price from its ecosystem's fundamentals-a challenge it has yet to fully conquer.