Solana's $145 Battle: Can Buyers Break Out or Will Sellers Reclaim?

Solana is locked in a high-stakes battle at the $140 level. The price has surged back above that key support, but it's now testing a familiar ceiling. The immediate resistance zone sits between $141.5 and $145.4, a range that has triggered sharp pullbacks of 15%–16% in the past. This time, the correction has been shallower, with a 4% drop before rebounding, suggesting buyers are finding a floor. Yet the overhead supply is thick, and a decisive breakout with conviction is needed to target higher highs.

The most immediate support is the $140 area, where a bullish trend line and the 100-hourly simple moving average are providing a critical floor. A break below this zone would signal a loss of short-term control and likely trigger a swift retest of the $135 monthly low. For now, the structure holds, but the battle is being fought in real time.

Volume confirms the intensity. The 24-hour trading volume has jumped to $5.6 billion, up about 11%. This elevated participation shows active traders are engaged in the fight, but it's not yet clear if the buying is strong enough to break the resistance. The setup is a classic test: a bullish trend line and moving average support are holding, but the price is capped by a known resistance zone. The next move hinges on whether buyers can push through with volume or if sellers reclaim the $140 floor.

Supply vs. Demand Mechanics: The Bullish Resilience Test

The battle lines are drawn. Buyers have shown remarkable resilience, consistently defending a long-term support zone near $125–$130. Every dip back to that area has triggered a swift rebound, absorbing selling pressure and signaling strong accumulation. This repeated defense has built a solid floor, keeping the broader structure intact and giving bulls a foothold.

The critical test now is overhead. Sellers have concentrated their supply between $145 and $150. A clean reclaim of this zone is necessary to confirm bullish strength and open the path toward targets like $165. The market is in a classic coiled structure, with higher lows pressing against this resistance band. A decisive breakout above $145 would flip this area into support and shift momentum decisively higher.

Here's the tension: price momentum is bullish, but underlying participation is cooling. On-chain data reveals a stark divergence. While the price is pushing higher, new weekly wallets have plummeted from 30.2 million to just 7.3 million. This collapse in new address creation signals that the rally is not being driven by broadening network adoption. The momentum is being front-run by traders betting on a breakout, not by a surge of new users building the ecosystem.

This imbalance creates a high-risk setup. The thinning supply of new buyers means there's less fresh capital to absorb the massive overhead supply at $145+. A rejection at resistance could trigger a sharp, volume-driven sell-off as momentum traders exit and the lack of new demand becomes apparent. The bullish trend relies on conviction that can only come from expanding participation, which is currently absent.

Breakout or Rejection Scenarios: Specific Targets and Triggers

The setup is clear. Solana's path forward hinges on a decisive move above the $145 resistance. A clean breakout with sustained volume is the only way to confirm a shift from a corrective bounce to a new uptrend. The immediate target is the $150 level, a major psychological and technical barrier. A confirmed hold above that zone would open the path toward $170. The bullish MACD signal and the breakout from the descending channel provide technical fuel for this move. The trigger is simple: price must close decisively above $145 with volume that matches or exceeds the recent surge. Without that follow-through, the breakout remains a false signal.

The primary risk is a failure at $145. Sellers have concentrated their supply there, and a rejection would likely trigger a swift retest of the $135 region. This zone, which includes the monthly low and the key $140 support, is the floor for the current structure. A break below $140 would invalidate the bullish trend line and likely send price back toward the long-term demand zone near $125–$130. The trigger for this rejection is a failure to hold above $145, especially if volume dries up on the rally. The market's recent behavior shows it can bounce from $135, but a deeper breakdown would signal a loss of short-term control.

Watch for a reversal in on-chain participation. The collapse in new weekly wallets from 30.2 million to 7.3 million is a critical red flag. It means rallies are being driven by traders betting on a breakout, not by broadening network adoption. Without new buyer growth, rallies may remain corrective and capped at resistance. The implication is that any breakout above $145 could be short-lived if it lacks the underlying demand to sustain it. The market is in a fragile state where sentiment is bullish, but fundamentals are cooling. A breakout would need to be backed by a surge in new addresses to have a chance of reaching $170. Without it, the rally is vulnerable to a sharp reversal as momentum traders exit and the lack of new demand becomes apparent.