Solana's $140 Consolidation: Breakout Potential and On-Chain Signals in a Tug-of-War Market

Solana (SOL) has spent much of late 2025 consolidating around the $140 level, a price zone that has become a battleground for bulls and bears. This consolidation reflects a broader tug-of-war between speculative optimism and fundamental caution, with technical indicators and on-chain metrics offering conflicting signals. For investors, the critical question is whether Solana can break above $145 to rekindle its bullish trajectory or if the $140–$147 range will ultimately cap its growth.

Technical Indicators: A Mixed Bag of Signals

From a technical perspective, Solana's price action suggests a potential breakout is on the horizon. The asset has formed a double-bottom pattern, with a neckline near $145 serving as a key resistance level. A daily close above this threshold would confirm the pattern's validity and open the door to the 50-day EMA at $158. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 41.82, indicating that bearish momentum is waning, which could pave the way for a short-term correction or even a sustained rally.

However, the path to a breakout is not without obstacles. Solana has repeatedly stalled near $144.17–$148, failing to break above the psychological $150 level. This indecision has led to a consolidation phase, with technical indicators like the MACD and Awesome Oscillator showing weakening bullish momentum. A breakdown below $140 could trigger a bearish flag pattern, targeting $100 as a potential downside level.

On-Chain Metrics: Structural Strength vs. Valuation Concerns

On-chain data paints a nuanced picture. Solana's decentralized exchange (DEX) volume surged to $1.6 trillion in 2025, surpassing major centralized exchanges like Bybit and Coinbase. This robust transactional throughput underscores the network's utility, even as its price remains subdued. However, the Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio has reached a seven-month high, signaling a potential disconnect between market valuation and actual usage. Historically, such divergences have preceded bearish corrections, as seen in previous crypto cycles.

Another critical metric is the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, which stood at 1.24 in December 2025. This level is significantly below historical peaks (2.65–6.12), suggesting that Solana is still undervalued relative to its realized market capitalization. This could imply room for further appreciation, provided on-chain fundamentals continue to strengthen.

Institutional Interest and Protocol-Level Developments

Institutional demand for Solana has remained resilient. ETF inflows turned positive in late 2025, with a notable $45.77 million net inflow on a single Tuesday. This trend accelerated in December, as Solana-focused ETFs recorded four consecutive days of net inflows, reflecting growing confidence from institutional players. Additionally, Morgan Stanley filed to launch a Solana Trust ETF in January 2026, marking a milestone as the first major bank-led retail product for the asset.

Protocol-level upgrades also provide a tailwind. The Alpenglow upgrade enhanced Solana's throughput to 107,000 transactions per second, while a proposed governance change (SIMD-0411) aims to accelerate the disinflation rate to 30% from 15%, reducing token supply and potentially supporting price appreciation. These structural improvements, combined with cross-chain integrations, could expand Solana's utility and attract more liquidity.

Risks and Challenges

Despite these positives, risks remain. The number of daily active addresses on Solana dropped from 7–9 million at the start of 2025 to 3–4 million by midyear, signaling reduced grassroots engagement. While long-term holders have returned to accumulation, this trend may not offset broader user attrition. Additionally, macroeconomic factors-such as high interest rates and regulatory scrutiny-continue to dampen speculative activity.

The NVT ratio's elevation remains a red flag. While Solana's DEX volume is impressive, the price has not kept pace with this growth, raising concerns about overvaluation. A breakdown below $140 could exacerbate these risks, particularly if short-term traders amplify selling pressure.

Conclusion: A Tipping Point for Solana

Solana's $140 consolidation represents a critical inflection point. A clean breakout above $145 would validate the double-bottom pattern and align with improving on-chain fundamentals, including rising TVL and stablecoin liquidity. Conversely, a breakdown below $140 could reignite bearish sentiment, especially with the NVT ratio already signaling valuation risks.

For investors, the key is to monitor both technical and on-chain signals. A sustained close above $145 would likely trigger a rally toward $165 and beyond, while a failure to break out could lead to a retest of the $125–$130 support zone. In the long term, Solana's infrastructure upgrades and institutional adoption provide a strong foundation, but near-term volatility remains a reality.