SOL Tests $145 Support as ETF Inflows and Technical Indicators Signal Market Divergence

• Solana's price action around the $145 level has become a focal point, reflecting a tug-of-war between bullish derivatives activity and weakening on-chain adoption metrics according to analysis.
• Institutional inflows into Solana ETFs and rising futures open interest underscore strong positioning for a potential breakout, while declining wallet creation highlights fragility in user growth as reported.
• Technical indicators such as the MACD and RSI suggest a cautious bullish bias, but bearish divergence in the NVT ratio and Chaikin Money Flow introduces uncertainty about the rally's durability according to technical analysis.

Solana's price has been tightly contested near the $145 level, with the token frequently fluctuating between this threshold and $148 amid mixed signals from on-chain and derivatives markets according to market data. Institutional activity remains robust, with a $16.54 million inflow into Solana-focused ETFs on a single day in late 2025, contributing to growing optimism among market participants according to reports. Futures open interest has surged to $7.26 billion, with long positions holding a 52.55% dominance in the futures market as data shows. These figures suggest a coordinated effort to push the price higher, particularly if Solana can close above $145 to target the 50-day EMA at $152 and the 200-day EMA at $172 according to analysis.

Despite the bullish indicators, Solana's on-chain metrics reveal a concerning divergence. New wallet creation dropped from 30.2 million in November to 7.3 million by early January 2026, signaling a slowdown in user adoption that contrasts with the price's recent rise according to on-chain data. The elevated NVT ratio indicates that Solana's price is outpacing its transactional demand, raising valuation concerns among analysts as analysis shows. Additionally, the negative Chaikin Money Flow of -0.13 suggests persistent selling pressure, even as derivatives activity shows strength according to technical indicators.

Technical analysis further complicates the outlook. While the MACD and RSI indicators support a bullish case, the Chaikin Money Flow and NVT ratio highlight structural weaknesses according to technical analysis. A confirmed close above $145 would be a key validation of the rally, but failure to maintain this level could trigger a cascade of liquidations, particularly at the $122.2 and $130.4 levels according to market analysis. Traders are monitoring the 100-day EMA at $149 as a critical threshold for momentum, with projections suggesting a potential 44% increase to $200 if this level is cleared according to forecasts.

What Drives Institutional and Derivatives Activity on Solana?

Institutional flows have become a key driver in Solana's recent price dynamics. U.S.-listed Solana ETFs recorded $23.57 million in net inflows on January 15, reflecting renewed retail and institutional interest in the asset according to data. This inflow, though modest, is part of a broader trend of cumulative inflows totaling $834 million and net assets of $1.18 billion since the launch of these ETFs according to reports. Such activity suggests a growing acceptance of Solana as a tradable asset within traditional financial systems as analysis indicates.

The derivatives market has also seen a surge, with futures open interest rising to $8.8 billion on January 15, marking the highest level since early November according to market data. This increase reflects heightened positioning among traders, with long positions gaining an edge in the market as reported. The futures funding rate, at 0.0224%, indicates strong long-side dominance, although it has dipped slightly from 0.005% to 0.003% over 24 hours, signaling some fatigue in bullish conviction according to technical analysis.

Retail interest has also contributed to the uptrend, with Solana trading above $146 and supported by a convergence of technical indicators according to market data. The RSI has climbed to 68 on the daily chart, suggesting a buildup of momentum, while the MACD indicator remains above the signal line, reinforcing the bullish bias according to technical indicators.

What Do On-Chain Metrics Reveal About Solana's Fundamentals?

Despite the positive price action, Solana's on-chain fundamentals remain a point of concern. Weekly wallet creation has dropped significantly, from 30.2 million in November to 7.3 million by early January 2026 according to on-chain data. This decline raises questions about the token's ability to sustain the rally without broader adoption. The Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio has spiked to elevated levels, indicating that Solana's price growth is outpacing its transactional demand as analysis shows. This misalignment suggests a valuation risk that could trigger a correction if the fundamentals fail to catch up.

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) remains negative at -0.13, signaling continued selling pressure despite the bullish sentiment in derivatives markets according to technical indicators. This divergence highlights the fragility of the current rally, as technical optimism is not necessarily backed by on-chain strength. Furthermore, the perpetual futures funding rate, while positive, has shown signs of weakening, with the average rate dipping from 0.005% to 0.003% over 24 hours according to market data.

Derivatives traders are also positioning for potential volatility, with $149.74 million in short positions vulnerable to forced closures if Solana fails to reclaim the $130 resistance level according to market analysis. A breakdown below key support levels—particularly $128 or the psychological $100 level—could invalidate the triple-bottom pattern and expose the fragility of the current rally according to technical analysis.

In summary, Solana's price action around the $145 level reflects a complex interplay between institutional optimism and on-chain weakness. While derivatives activity and ETF inflows support a bullish thesis, the declining user base and elevated NVT ratio suggest that the rally may be built on shaky foundations. Traders and investors are closely watching both technical and on-chain signals to determine whether the current trend will hold or give way to a more significant correction.