SOL Price Faces Mixed Signals Amid Strong On-Chain Growth and ETF Inflows

• Solana's price is forming an ascending wedge pattern, often a precursor to a pullback, with potential downside to $129 if the pattern resolves lower.
• On-chain activity shows a 56% week-over-week increase in active addresses, reaching 27.1 million, driven by the Alpenglow upgrade and rising DeFi and tokenized asset adoption according to data.
• Solana ETFs recorded $750 million in inflows during Q4 2025, despite a 26.5% price decline, reflecting growing institutional interest in yield generation and infrastructure exposure.

Solana's price action has recently formed an ascending wedge pattern, which is often seen as a bearish continuation pattern. If this pattern resolves lower, analysts project a potential 9.5% decline to around $129. On-chain data indicates strong network growth, with over 8 million new addresses joining the network in a 24-hour period. This surge in new addresses reflects growing demand driven by DeFi and high-throughput applications.

The increase in active addresses has been particularly notable, with the number of active addresses on Solana reaching 27.1 million as of January 18, 2026. This represents a 56% increase week-over-week and is the highest level in six months. The surge in activity is supported by an expanding user base and increased transaction volume, with Solana processing over 97.2 million transactions in the past week.

Institutional interest in Solana has also been growing, with ETF inflows reaching $750 million during Q4 2025 despite a 26.5% price decline. This trend reflects a shift in investor behavior, where capital prioritizes yield generation and infrastructure exposure over immediate price appreciation. The Bitwise BSOL fund alone has attracted $476 million in 19 consecutive days of inflows since October 2025.

How Does Solana's Price Pattern Affect Its Outlook?

Solana's price is currently trading near $144 and has formed an ascending wedge pattern, which is often a precursor to a pullback. If the pattern resolves lower, a potential 9.5% decline to around $129 is projected. This pattern is formed by converging trend lines that typically result in a breakdown when the lower trend line is broken. Exchange position change data indicates that long-term holders are exerting stronger influence, as buying pressure from these participants has weakened. This shift increases the risk of a price correction as selling pressure outweighs new demand.

Despite the bearish technical pattern, Solana's on-chain activity shows strong growth. The number of active addresses has surged, indicating growing network usage and adoption. This growth is supported by an expanding user base and increased transaction volume. The surge in activity is attributed to the Alpenglow upgrade, which has improved scalability and attracted more developers.

What Role Do ETF Inflows Play in Solana's Market Dynamics?

Solana ETFs have recorded significant inflows, attracting institutional interest in staking yields and infrastructure exposure over short-term price movements. Despite a 26.5% price drop in Q4 2025, these ETFs attracted $750 million in inflows, reflecting growing confidence in Solana's long-term potential. The Bitwise BSOL fund, which captures 89% of inflows, has attracted $476 million in 19 consecutive days of inflows since October 2025.

Institutional adoption of Solana's upgrades has further strengthened its case. The Alpenglow and Firedancer protocols have enhanced its institutional appeal, with Alpenglow introducing deterministic execution and 150ms block finality. These advancements have led to partnerships with major firms like Western Union and BlackRock, which are using Solana for remittance pilots and tokenized real-world assets (RWAs).

What Are the Risks and Opportunities for Solana?

The growing on-chain activity and ETF inflows indicate strong investor interest in Solana. However, the ascending wedge pattern suggests a potential price correction if the pattern resolves lower. A breakdown would likely push the price toward $136 initially, with further support at $130. If investor sentiment improves and selling pressure eases, Solana could rebound from the wedge's lower trend line.

Despite the bearish technical pattern, Solana's on-chain growth and institutional interest suggest that the network is gaining momentum. The surge in active addresses and transaction volume reflects growing adoption and usage. Institutional investors remain cautiously optimistic about Solana's long-term potential, with companies like Pantera Capital and Galaxy Digital committing to Solana through public treasuries.

The key question is whether the recent ETF inflows represent a sustainable re-rating of Solana's value proposition or a temporary flight to yield in a bearish market. For now, Solana's ETF-driven narrative offers a compelling case for long-term positioning, provided governance and liquidity challenges are addressed.