SOL's $80 Break: Flow Analysis of the Bearish Shift

Solana's price broke key support, falling below $80. The token is now trading at $80.95, down 5.09% over the past 24 hours. This breakdown follows a persistent decline, with SOL down 38% over the past 30 days and a staggering 67% from its $249 high last September.

The bearish momentum is being fueled by derivatives flows. Futures open interest climbed 3% to $5.24 billion as price fell, a classic sign of new short positions entering the market rather than longs unwinding. This leverage buildup amplifies downside pressure.

At the same time, trader positioning has turned decisively bearish. Average funding rates have flipped negative, meaning traders are paying to hold long positions. This deep negative funding reflects dominant short exposure and creates a potential trap for a squeeze if price stabilizes, but for now it signals a strong bearish bias in the derivatives market.

Structural Liquidity and Supply Shift

Nearly $870 million worth of SOL has exited liquid staking protocols since June 2025. This newly available supply increases the potential for selling pressure if market sentiment turns further bearish.

Liquidity is also tilting toward derivatives. In the past 24 hours, spot trading volume was $684 million, dwarfed by $7.73 billion in futures volume. This dominance of derivatives activity means price moves are more sensitive to leverage flows and liquidations, not just spot buying and selling.

The leverage is now being unwound. Futures liquidation volume hit $9.85 million over the last day, with long positions taking the brunt. This forced unwinding of leveraged longs adds direct downward pressure on the spot price, creating a feedback loop that can accelerate declines.

Catalysts and Key Levels to Watch

The immediate price action hinges on a few critical levels. The next major support is at $75. A decisive break below that level could trigger a move toward the $70–$60 zone, exposing deeper demand. The current price near $81 is already testing this key psychological and technical barrier.

On the upside, a recovery above the $88–$90 resistance on strong volume is needed to weaken the bearish case. This zone aligns with dynamic resistance from short-term moving averages and marks the area where the recent failed bounce occurred. A sustained break above it would signal a shift in momentum.

Monitor two derivatives signals as price attempts a bounce. First, watch if negative funding rates reverse and turn positive, indicating shorts are covering and longs are paying to hold. Second, see if open interest stabilizes or begins to decline as price finds support. Persistent high open interest with falling price, as seen recently, reflects new short positioning that must be unwound for a sustained rally.