Soho House Surges 11.9% Amid Oversold Rebound—What’s Fueling the Rally?

Summary
• SHCO rockets 11.93% intraday to $8.865, nearing 52W high of $8.98
• RSI plummets to 12.86, signaling extreme oversold conditions
• MACD (-0.24) and negative histogram confirm bearish momentum
• Bollinger Bands show price clings to lower band at $7.77

SHCO’s explosive rebound has ignited speculation about a potential reversal. With technical indicators flashing oversold signals and the stock trading near its 52-week high, the move defies recent bearish trends. The real estate services sector remains muted, but SHCO’s standalone performance suggests a short-term catalyst. Traders are now parsing options data and volatility metrics to gauge the sustainability of this sharp reversal.

Oversold Rebound Drives SHCO’s Sharp Intraday Rally
SHCO’s 11.93% surge stems from a classic oversold rebound. The RSI at 12.86—the lowest level in months—indicates extreme bearish exhaustion, while the MACD (-0.24) and negative histogram (-0.13) confirm short-term bearish momentum. Price action shows the stock has rebounded off the Bollinger Bands lower boundary ($7.77) and is now testing the 30-day support/resistance range (8.9462–8.97). The 200-day moving average at $7.69 remains a critical psychological level, but the 30-day MA ($8.75) and 100-day MA ($8.82) suggest a potential consolidation phase. This move appears to be a technical bounce rather than a fundamental shift, with no direct link to real estate sector news.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on SHCO’s Volatility with Leverage
• Technical Indicators:
- RSI: 12.86 (extreme oversold)
- MACD: -0.24 (bearish), Signal Line: -0.11
- Bollinger Bands: Price at 7.77 (lower) vs. 9.62 (upper)
- 200D MA: $7.69 (below current price)
- 30D/100D MA: $8.75/$8.82 (near current price)

SHCO’s technicals suggest a potential short-term reversal. Key levels to watch: the 30-day support/resistance range (8.9462–8.97) and the 52W high of $8.98. A break above $8.9462 could trigger a rally toward $9.62, while a drop below $8.80 would retest the 200D MA. The 7.5-strike call (SHCO20260220C7.5) and put (SHCO20260220P7.5) stand out for their high leverage and implied volatility.

Top Options:
• SHCO20260220C7.5 (Call):
- Strike: $7.5, Expiry: 2026-02-20
- IV: 42.46% (high), Delta: 0.9091 (high), Theta: -0.0101 (high decay), Gamma: 0.1365 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: $40,310 (high liquidity)
- LVR: 6.11% (moderate leverage)
- Payoff (5% upside): $0.445 (max(0, 9.308 - 7.5))
- Why: High delta and IV make this ideal for a bullish breakout. Theta decay is manageable given the 2026 expiry.
• SHCO20260220P7.5 (Put):
- Strike: $7.5, Expiry: 2026-02-20
- IV: 41.69% (high), Delta: -0.0873 (low), Theta: -0.0016 (low decay), Gamma: 0.1349 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: $150 (moderate liquidity)
- LVR: 177.30% (extreme leverage)
- Payoff (5% upside): $0 (max(0, 7.5 - 9.308))
- Why: High leverage and gamma make this a speculative play if volatility spikes. Theta decay is minimal.

Hook: Aggressive bulls should target SHCO20260220C7.5 if $8.9462 breaks. Cautious bears may short SHCO20260220P7.5 if the 200D MA ($7.69) holds.

Backtest Soho House Stock Performance
The backtest of SHCO's performance after a 12% intraday increase from 2022 to now shows mixed results. While the stock experienced a maximum return of 5.56% on January 15, 2026, the overall 3-day win rate is 47.48%, the 10-day win rate is 49.67%, and the 30-day win rate is 50.33%. This indicates that SHCO tends to have a higher win rate in the short term, but the returns are relatively modest, with an average return of -0.12% over the 457 days of the backtest.

Act Now: SHCO’s Oversold Rebound Could Signal a Breakout
SHCO’s 11.93% surge is a textbook oversold rebound, but sustainability depends on breaking the 30-day support/resistance range (8.9462–8.97). Traders should monitor the 200D MA ($7.69) as a critical support level and the 52W high ($8.98) as a resistance target. The sector leader CBRE GROUP (CBRE) is up 3.25%, suggesting real estate services may see broader momentum. Action: Buy SHCO20260220C7.5 if $8.9462 breaks; short SHCO20260220P7.5 if $7.69 holds. Watch for a $9.62 ceiling or $7.69 breakdown in the next 30 days.