Soho House (SHCO) Surges 15% on Take-Private Deal: Is This the Final Chapter?

Summary
• Soho House (SHCO) jumps 15.18% to $8.80, hitting a 52-week high of $8.88
• $9/share take-private offer values company at $2.7B, 83% above Dec 2024 price
• MCR Hotels, Apollo, and Ashton Kutcher lead consortium; shares to delist by year-end

Shares of Soho House & Co (SHCO) erupted in premarket trading after the luxury membership chain announced a $2.7 billion take-private deal. The stock’s 15.18% surge—its largest intraday gain in over a year—reflects investor optimism over the premium offer and strategic alignment with MCR Hotels. With the stock trading near its 52-week high and volume surging to 25.5 million shares, the move underscores a pivotal moment for the company’s public market journey.

Take-Private Premium Ignites Short-Term Rally
Soho House’s 15.18% intraday surge stems directly from its announced $9/share take-private agreement, which represents an 83% premium to its December 2024 price. The deal, led by MCR Hotels and backed by Apollo and Ashton Kutcher, offers immediate liquidity to shareholders while positioning the company for operational synergy with MCR’s hospitality assets. The $9.00 per share cash consideration, combined with the involvement of high-profile investors, has created a clear floor for the stock, driving aggressive buying in the short term.

Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure Sector Mixed as SHCO Outperforms
While SHCO’s 15.18% gain dominates headlines, the broader Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure sector remains fragmented. Sector leader Marriott (MAR) edged up 0.37%, reflecting cautious optimism in travel demand but lagging SHCO’s volatility. The disparity highlights SHCO’s unique catalyst—a clear exit event—versus the sector’s reliance on macroeconomic factors like inflation and consumer spending. SHCO’s rally is driven by deal-specific optimism rather than sector-wide trends.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on SHCO’s Bullish Momentum
• MACD: 0.200 (above signal line 0.049), RSI: 76.62 (overbought), Bollinger Bands: $8.88 (upper), $6.78 (middle), $5.75 (lower)
• 200-day MA: $6.49 (well below current price), 30-day MA: $6.90

SHCO’s technicals suggest a continuation of its bullish momentum, with the stock trading near its 52-week high and RSI in overbought territory. The 200-day MA at $6.49 and Bollinger Bands’ upper bound at $8.88 indicate strong near-term support. For options traders, the key is to balance leverage with liquidity. Two contracts stand out:

• SHCO20250919C7.5 (Call):
- Strike: $7.50, Expiry: 2025-09-19, Delta: 0.979, IV: 27.20%, Gamma: 0.0697, Theta: -0.0101, Turnover: $158,517
- Leverage Ratio: 6.61% (high), IV: 27.20% (moderate), Delta: 0.979 (deep in-the-money)
- This call offers a high probability of profit as the stock trades above $7.50, with strong liquidity and moderate volatility. A 5% upside to $9.24 would yield a payoff of $1.74 per contract.

• SHCO20250919P7.5 (Put):
- Strike: $7.50, Expiry: 2025-09-19, Delta: -0.066, IV: 37.46%, Gamma: 0.1297, Theta: -0.0011, Turnover: $828
- Leverage Ratio: 293.17% (extreme), IV: 37.46% (elevated), Delta: -0.066 (out-of-the-money)
- The put’s high leverage and gamma make it ideal for a volatility play if the stock consolidates. However, its negative delta means it benefits from a pullback, which is less likely given the take-private floor at $9.00.

Action: Aggressive bulls should prioritize the SHCO20250919C7.5 call for a high-probability, high-liquidity bet on the stock holding above $7.50. Cautious traders may use the put as a volatility hedge, but the call remains the core play.

Backtest Soho House Stock Performance
The backtest of SHCO's performance after a 15% intraday surge shows mixed results. While the stock experienced a maximum return of 2.90% on day 59, the overall short-term performance was lackluster, with the 3-day win rate at 48.02% and the 10-day win rate at 47.82%. The 30-day win rate was slightly higher at 50.31%, but the average returns over these periods were negative, at -0.16% over 3 days and -0.03% over 10 days. This suggests that while there is some potential for gains following a significant intraday surge, the stock often underperforms in the immediate aftermath, with the maximum return day occurring relatively late in the 59-day backtested period.

Final Call: Lock In Gains or Ride the Wave?
Soho House’s 15.18% surge reflects a clear inflection point as the stock approaches its $9.00 take-private floor. While technicals suggest the rally could extend, the overbought RSI and proximity to the 52-week high signal caution. Investors should monitor the stock’s ability to hold above $8.75 (intraday low) and watch for volume confirmation. Meanwhile, sector leader Marriott (MAR) gained 0.37%, offering a broader context for hospitality sector sentiment. For SHCO, the key is to secure the $9.00 offer price by year-end—watch for a breakdown below $8.75 as a potential red flag.