SoftBank's Ampere Deal: Regulatory Crossroads or AI Inflection Point?

The U.S. Federal Trade Commission's (FTC) second request for information on SoftBank's $6.5 billion acquisition of Ampere Computing has thrown the deal into regulatory limbo, potentially delaying its completion beyond 2025. While this uncertainty could spook investors, the reality is far more nuanced: the FTC's scrutiny provides a critical stress test of SoftBank's broader AI infrastructure strategy—and an opportunity to reassess its stock's valuation. For investors, the key question is whether the regulatory delay represents a fleeting headwind or a catalyst for repositioning SoftBank as a leader in the AI-driven semiconductor revolution.

Regulatory Scrutiny: A Barrier or a Barometer?

The FTC's second request is no mere formality. It underscores antitrust concerns over SoftBank's existing control of Arm Holdings—a British semiconductor IP firm—and its proposed acquisition of Ampere, a leading designer of energy-efficient ARM-based server processors. The overlap raises questions about whether SoftBank would dominate critical infrastructure for AI server chips, potentially stifling competition.

This is not the first time SoftBank has faced such scrutiny. Its 2020 attempt to sell Arm to NVIDIA collapsed under global antitrust pressure, a lesson that now informs Ampere's deal. While the FTC's second request could prolong the review process (potentially into 2026), the stakes are higher this time: Ampere's technology is already embedded in cloud giants like Amazon Web Services and Oracle, making it a linchpin for AI infrastructure.

The regulatory delay creates a “wait-and-see” environment. Yet, for investors, it also forces a deeper analysis of SoftBank's portfolio synergies and Ampere's strategic value.

Portfolio Synergies: SoftBank's AI Stack Takes Shape

SoftBank's acquisition of Ampere is not an isolated play but a cornerstone of its vertical integration strategy. Combined with its ownership of Arm Holdings and its 2024 acquisition of Graphcore (makers of AI accelerators), the deal positions SoftBank to control both the architecture (Arm) and execution (Ampere's processors, Graphcore's IPUs) of AI infrastructure. This synergy is unmatched in the industry:

• Arm's Licensing Power: As the global standard for low-power chip designs, Arm's IP underpins 95% of smartphones. Ampere's servers extend this reach into data centers, where energy-efficient ARM-based processors are displacing x86 chips in AI workloads.
• Ampere's Market Momentum: Ampere's processors already account for ~15% of the data center CPU market, with AWS relying on its designs for its Graviton chips. Its upcoming AmpereOne Aurora (512 cores, integrated AI acceleration) targets trillion-parameter AI models, a market projected to grow at 14.4% CAGR through 2033.
• Graphcore's Complementarity: Graphcore's IPUs, optimized for AI training, pair with Ampere's CPUs for inference, creating a full-stack solution. This reduces SoftBank's reliance on NVIDIA's dominant GPU ecosystem.

The AI Infrastructure Supercycle: Why Ampere Matters

The demand for AI-driven semiconductors is booming. Data center energy consumption is set to double by 2026, driven by AI and crypto, making energy efficiency a non-negotiable priority. Ampere's processors, which deliver 40% better performance-per-watt than prior models, are ideally positioned to capitalize on this shift.

• SoftBank's AI Ecosystem Play: The Ampere deal aligns with its $1 trillion AI hub initiative, which includes partnerships with TSMC (chip manufacturing), Oracle (cloud), and OpenAI (Stargate project). Ampere's chips will power OpenAI's supercomputing infrastructure, a $500 billion venture.
• Competitive Landscape: While x86 and NVIDIA GPUs still dominate, Ampere's partnerships and roadmap could accelerate the shift to ARM-based servers. Analysts estimate that ARM's data center market share could hit 50% by 2027 if Ampere's deal clears.

Investment Thesis: Regulatory Clouds Have Silver Linings

For investors, the FTC's delay creates a valuation inflection point. SoftBank's stock has underperformed the Nikkei 225 since March, reflecting uncertainty around the Ampere deal. However, a favorable regulatory outcome could unlock value:

1. Upside Case: If approved, Ampere's integration would solidify SoftBank's control over a $200 billion AI infrastructure market. The deal's $6.5 billion price tag represents a 25% premium to Ampere's 2023 valuation, but its long-term revenue synergies (e.g., cross-selling to Arm licensees) could justify this.
2. Downside Risk: A blocked deal would force SoftBank to reassess its AI strategy, potentially diluting its stake in OpenAI or slowing Stargate's progress.

Call to Action: A Strategic Entry Point

The FTC's review creates a “buy the dip” opportunity for investors willing to bet on SoftBank's AI vision. Key catalysts to watch:

• Regulatory Timeline: A resolution by Q4 2025 would remove uncertainty, while a prolonged review beyond 2026 could pressure SoftBank's stock further.
• Ampere's Product Launches: The 2025 rollout of AmpereOne Aurora will test its ability to compete with NVIDIA's H100 and AMD's Sierra Forest processors.
• SoftBank's Debt Management: The company's $30 billion debt due by late 2025 requires Ampere's success to bolster cash flows.

Final Take

SoftBank's Ampere deal is not just about a single acquisition—it's a defining moment for its pivot to AI infrastructure. The FTC's scrutiny is a necessary hurdle, but it also sharpens the focus on Ampere's strategic value. For investors, the delay is a chance to position ahead of a potential inflection point: a regulatory green light could turn SoftBank into a must-own stock for the AI era.

Investment Recommendation: Consider accumulating SoftBank shares on dips below ¥4,000 (current price: ~¥4,200) with a 12-month target of ¥5,500, assuming regulatory approval and Ampere's product success. Maintain a cautious stance if the deal is blocked, with a price target of ¥3,000.

Data as of June 19, 2025. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.