SoftBank's AI-Driven Strategic Rebalancing: A High-Conviction Play on the Future of Computing and Data Infrastructure

In 2025, SoftBank Group has emerged as a pivotal player in the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution, leveraging its financial firepower and long-term vision to reshape the global tech landscape. The company's strategic rebalancing—marked by aggressive AI investments, asset sales, and capital reallocation—has positioned it at the intersection of computing infrastructure and data-driven innovation. For investors, this raises a critical question: Is SoftBank's AI-focused portfolio a rare entry point into the next phase of the AI revolution, or a speculative gamble with uncertain payoffs?

The AI Portfolio: A Bet on the Future

SoftBank's AI strategy is anchored in three pillars: OpenAI, Arm Holdings, and Ampere Computing. The company's $30 billion investment in OpenAI—part of a $40 billion funding round—places it at the forefront of the generative AI boom. This stake, valued at $300 billion post-money, reflects SoftBank's belief in OpenAI's ability to dominate the AI arms race. Complementing this is the Stargate Project, a $500 billion joint venture with Oracle, MGX, and others to build U.S. AI data centers. These facilities, designed to train and deploy next-generation AI models, are expected to become the backbone of industries ranging from healthcare to defense.

SoftBank's semiconductor bets further solidify its position. The acquisition of Ampere Computing for $6.5 billion and its long-standing stake in Arm Holdings (valued at $145 billion) ensure access to cutting-edge chip design. Arm's IP powers 95% of mobile devices and is increasingly adopted in AI infrastructure, while Ampere's high-performance server chips address the surging demand for computational power. Together, these moves create a vertically integrated AI ecosystem, spanning hardware, software, and infrastructure.

Capital Reallocation: Funding the AI Ambition

To finance these high-stakes bets, SoftBank has executed a series of asset sales. The company raised $12.6 billion by divesting portions of its T-Mobile US stake in 2025, a move that has reduced its leverage and improved its loan-to-value ratio to 17%. These proceeds, combined with gains from its Vision Fund (which posted a $2.9 billion profit in Q1 2025), have provided liquidity for AI ventures. The Vision Fund's portfolio now includes $45 billion in late-stage companies nearing IPOs, offering SoftBank opportunities to monetize and reinvest.

However, the company's debt load remains a concern. With a debt-to-EBITDA ratio exceeding 13x, SoftBank's aggressive AI strategy hinges on its ability to generate returns from these investments. Analysts warn that if the AI sector faces regulatory headwinds or adoption slowdowns, the company's high leverage could amplify risks.

Valuation Dynamics: A High-Conviction Play

SoftBank's stock has surged over 13% in August 2025, hitting a record high, as investors bet on its AI-driven transformation. The company's shares trade at a 60% discount to net asset value, a gap that has narrowed due to improved Vision Fund performance and optimism around AI monetization. However, the valuation of its AI assets—particularly OpenAI and Arm—remains speculative.

OpenAI's $500 billion valuation, for instance, is predicated on its $13 billion annual recurring revenue and 5 million enterprise users. Yet, its $8 billion annual burn rate and governance risks (including a lawsuit from Elon Musk) introduce volatility. Similarly, Arm's royalty-based model faces challenges in a market where chip demand is outpacing supply.

Strategic Risks and Opportunities

SoftBank's AI strategy is not without risks. Regulatory scrutiny of its Ampere acquisition and the Stargate Project could delay timelines. Geopolitical tensions, particularly U.S.-China dynamics, may also impact Arm's licensing business. Additionally, the success of the Stargate Project depends on the timely deployment of data centers and the adoption of AI models by enterprises.

Yet, the potential rewards are immense. If SoftBank can execute its vision, it could capture a dominant share of the AI infrastructure market, which is projected to grow to $1.5 trillion by 2030. The company's control over Arm's IP, combined with its stakes in NVIDIA and TSMC, positions it to benefit from the AI hardware boom. Moreover, the Stargate Project's alignment with U.S. national security and economic priorities provides a tailwind for regulatory and political support.

Investment Thesis: A Rare Entry Point?

For investors, SoftBank's AI portfolio represents a high-conviction play on the next decade of technological evolution. The company's aggressive capital reallocation, strategic acquisitions, and alignment with AI's foundational infrastructure make it a compelling candidate for long-term growth. However, the entry point must be carefully evaluated.

• Current Valuation: SoftBank's stock is trading at a discount to its net asset value, but its AI assets are already priced for perfection. A more attractive entry may emerge if the market corrects for overvaluation risks in the sector.
• Diversification: Investors should consider diversifying across AI players (e.g., Anthropic, Perplexity) to mitigate sector-specific risks.
• Timing: The Stargate Project's progress and OpenAI's restructuring (including a potential IPO in 2026) will be critical milestones to monitor.

Conclusion

SoftBank's AI-driven strategic rebalancing is a bold bet on the future of computing and data infrastructure. While the company's high leverage and speculative valuations pose risks, its long-term vision, strategic partnerships, and control over critical AI assets make it a unique opportunity for investors with a multi-year horizon. For those willing to navigate the uncertainties, SoftBank's AI portfolio could unlock transformative returns as the world transitions into the next phase of the AI revolution.

Investment Advice: Consider a measured entry into SoftBank's AI-focused portfolio, prioritizing diversification and monitoring key execution risks. The next 12–18 months will be pivotal in determining whether this high-conviction play delivers on its ambitious vision.