SoFi Technologies Plunges 4.44%—Is the Fintech Giant Losing Momentum in a Volatile Market?

Summary
• SoFi Technologies (SOFI) slumps 4.44% to $21.74, its lowest since August 15
• Intraday range of $21.21–$22.72 highlights sharp sell-off
• Sector peers like PayPal (PYPL) also decline, signaling broader fintech weakness
• Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium looms as key catalyst for market sentiment

SoFi Technologies’ shares are under pressure amid a broader selloff in tech and fintech stocks, with investors locking in profits ahead of the Federal Reserve’s pivotal Jackson Hole symposium. The stock’s 4.44% drop to $21.74 reflects heightened volatility in the sector, driven by profit-taking and macroeconomic uncertainty. With the 52-week high at $25.11 now distant, traders are scrutinizing technical levels and options activity for clues on the next move.

Tech Sell-Off and Fed Anticipation Weigh on SoFi’s Shares
The sharp decline in SoFi’s stock is tied to a broader selloff in megacap tech and semiconductor stocks, including Nvidia and AMD, which dragged down the VanEck Semiconductor ETF. Investors are taking profits ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium, where policymakers are expected to signal on future monetary policy. SoFi, which has surged 60.8% year-to-date, is now trading near its 52-week high but faces profit-taking pressure as markets anticipate potential rate cuts. The sell-off is not unique to SoFi—fintech peers like Coinbase and Robinhood also fell sharply, reflecting sector-wide caution.

Financial Services Sector Mixed as ETFs Outperform SoFi’s Shares
The Financial Services sector, as measured by the SPDR Select Sector Fund (XLF), gained 0.04% on the day, outperforming SoFi’s 4.44% drop. ETFs like the Invesco KBW Bank ETF (KBWB) rose 12.58% year-to-date, while SoFi’s 52-week high of $25.11 remains unchallenged. This divergence highlights SoFi’s vulnerability to sector-specific risks, such as interest rate sensitivity and regulatory scrutiny, compared to broader financial services ETFs that include more stable banking and insurance stocks.

Options and ETFs to Watch: Navigating Volatility in a Bearish Setup
• 200-day average: 15.33 (well below current price)
• RSI: 55.31 (neutral, no overbought/sold signal)
• MACD: 1.04 (bullish) vs. signal line 1.09 (bearish)
• Bollinger Bands: Current price at $21.74 near lower band ($20.35–$24.27)
• Kline pattern: Short-term bearish trend with engulfing candle

Top Options Contracts:
1. SOFI20250829P21 (Put, $21 strike, 2025-08-29 expiry)
• IV: 66.01% (high volatility)
• Leverage ratio: 39.78% (moderate)
• Delta: -0.3296 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.0099 (slow time decay)
• Gamma: 0.1514 (high sensitivity to price moves)
• Turnover: 179,051 (high liquidity)
• Payoff (5% downside): $0.35/share (strike $21 vs. projected $20.65)
• Why it stands out: High gamma and liquidity make it ideal for short-term bearish bets.

2. SOFI20250829P21.5 (Put, $21.5 strike, 2025-08-29 expiry)
• IV: 62.77% (moderate)
• Leverage ratio: 30.82% (moderate)
• Delta: -0.4083 (higher sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.0027 (minimal time decay)
• Gamma: 0.1708 (very high sensitivity)
• Turnover: 122,118 (high liquidity)
• Payoff (5% downside): $0.85/share (strike $21.5 vs. projected $20.65)
• Why it stands out: Strong gamma and delta position it for outsized gains if the stock breaks below $21.5.

Trading Setup: Key support at $21.21 (intraday low) and resistance at $22.72 (intraday high). A break below $21.21 could trigger a test of the 200-day MA at $15.33. Aggressive bears may consider the Defiance Daily Target 2X Long SOFI ETF (SOFX) for leveraged exposure, though its -9.03% drop today underscores the sector’s fragility.

Backtest SoFi Technologies Stock Performance
The performance of SOFI after a -4% intraday plunge has historically shown positive returns. The backtest data reveals that the 3-day win rate is 52.79%, the 10-day win rate is 51.45%, and the 30-day win rate is 50.10%. Additionally, the maximum return during the backtest period was 7.22%, indicating that SOFI has the potential for recovery and even surpassing its pre-plunge levels.

Bullish Breakout or Bearish Breakdown? Key Levels to Watch
SoFi’s 4.44% drop reflects a fragile technical setup, with the stock hovering near its 52-week low of $6.75. While the long-term bullish trend remains intact (52-week high at $25.11), the short-term bearish Kline pattern and high gamma options suggest a potential breakdown. Investors should monitor the $21.21 support level and the 200-day MA at $15.33 as critical thresholds. Meanwhile, sector leader PayPal (PYPL) fell 1.67%, signaling broader fintech weakness. Act now: If $21.21 breaks, the SOFI20250829P21.5 put offers high-gamma leverage for bearish bets. Bulls should watch for a rebound above $22.72 to re-ignite momentum.