SOFI Surges 4.87% Amid Inflation Easing Hopes: What’s Fueling the Rally?

Summary
• SoFi Technologies (SOFI) rockets 4.87% intraday to $26.50, defying a 52-week low of $8.60.
• CPI inflation cools to 2.7% in November, below expectations, sparking Fed easing optimism.
• Sector leader Affirm Holdings (AFRM) surges 7.78%, amplifying consumer finance sector momentum.

SoFi Technologies is riding a wave of optimism as November’s CPI data signals a potential shift in monetary policy. With the stock trading near its 200-day average and a leveraged ETF (SOFX) surging 9.73%, the market is pricing in a bullish narrative. The day’s $25.95–$26.72 range reflects a sharp reversal from a short-term bearish trend, as investors pivot toward inflation-sensitive plays.

CPI Easing Sparks Optimism, Boosting Consumer Finance Stocks
The 2.7% annualized CPI increase in November, below the 3.1% forecast, has reignited hopes for aggressive Fed rate cuts in 2026. This has triggered a 'Fed put' scenario, where investors assume central bank support for risk assets. SoFi, a fintech lender reliant on low-rate environments, benefits directly from this narrative. The stock’s 4.87% surge aligns with broader market optimism, as evidenced by S&P 500 futures jumping 0.5% post-CPI release. However, analysts caution that the data’s reliability is clouded by the October shutdown, which distorted month-on-month comparisons.

Consumer Finance Sector Rally Intensifies as AFRM Leads Charge
The consumer finance sector is experiencing a synchronized rally, with Affirm Holdings (AFRM) surging 7.78%—triple SoFi’s gain. This divergence highlights AFRM’s stronger position in buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) markets, which are less sensitive to macroeconomic volatility. However, SoFi’s 4.87% move suggests a broader sector rotation toward rate-sensitive fintechs. The Defiance Daily Target 2X Long SOFI ETF (SOFX) amplifying 9.73% underscores leveraged demand for the sector’s momentum.

SOFX and SOFI Options: High-Volatility Plays in a Bullish Climate
• RSI: 34.15 (oversold)
• MACD: -0.56 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: $24.49–$30.44 (current price near middle band)
• 200-day average: $20.56 (well above)
• SOFX ETF: +9.73% (2X leveraged)

SoFi’s technicals suggest a short-term bounce from oversold RSI levels, but the bearish MACD and long-term ranging pattern indicate caution. The Defiance SOFX ETF offers 2X exposure to SOFI’s volatility, ideal for aggressive bulls. For options, focus on contracts with high leverage ratios and moderate deltas to capitalize on near-term volatility.

Top Option 1: SOFI20251226C27.5
• Code: SOFI20251226C27.5
• Type: Call
• Strike: $27.50
• Expiry: 2025-12-26
• IV: 44.03% (moderate)
• Leverage Ratio: 77.78% (high)
• Delta: 0.3028 (moderate)
• Theta: -0.0709 (high decay)
• Gamma: 0.1910 (high sensitivity)
• Turnover: 631,283 (liquid)
• Payoff at 5% upside ($27.83): $0.33/share
This call offers high leverage and liquidity, ideal for a 5% upside scenario. The high gamma ensures rapid delta expansion if the stock breaks $27.50.

Top Option 2: SOFI20251226C28
• Code: SOFI20251226C28
• Type: Call
• Strike: $28.00
• Expiry: 2025-12-26
• IV: 43.92% (moderate)
• Leverage Ratio: 120.20% (very high)
• Delta: 0.2179 (moderate)
• Theta: -0.0555 (high decay)
• Gamma: 0.1615 (high sensitivity)
• Turnover: 128,767 (liquid)
• Payoff at 5% upside ($27.83): $0.00 (out-of-the-money)
While this call is out-of-the-money, its 120% leverage ratio rewards aggressive bulls if SoFi surges past $28.00. The high gamma ensures rapid value accrual near expiry.

Hook: Aggressive bulls may consider SOFI20251226C27.5 into a break above $27.50, while SOFX offers 2X leveraged exposure to the sector’s momentum.

Backtest SoFi Technologies Stock Performance
The backtest of SOFI's performance after a 5% intraday increase from 2022 to the present shows mixed results. While the 3-day and 10-day win rates are relatively high at 41.51% and 45.28%, respectively, the longer-term 30-day win rate drops to 29.25%. The returns over the backtested periods are negative, with the maximum return being only 0.71% over 30 days, indicating that the strategy's performance is challenged by the negative returns over longer periods.

Bullish Momentum Unlikely to Subside: Position for SOFI’s Next Move
SoFi’s 4.87% rally is a microcosm of the broader consumer finance sector’s optimism around Fed easing. While the stock remains below its 52-week high of $32.73, the oversold RSI and leveraged ETF surge suggest near-term buying pressure. Sector leader Affirm Holdings (AFRM) surging 7.78% reinforces the narrative. Investors should monitor the $27.50–$28.00 resistance cluster and the 200-day average ($20.56) as critical support. For now, the Fed’s dovish pivot and SOFX’s 9.73% surge signal a high-conviction trade for aggressive bulls.