Sobi's Unchanged 2025 Outlook Amid Mixed Q1 Performance: Strategic Portfolio Growth vs. Immunology Headwinds

Sobi's reaffirmed 2025 outlook—predicting high single-digit revenue growth at constant exchange rates (CER) and an adjusted EBITA margin in the mid-30s—has sparked investor scrutiny. While the company's Q1 2025 results revealed a 3% total revenue increase, the performance was uneven across segments. Hematology's robust growth contrasted sharply with Immunology's 21% revenue decline, raising questions about the sustainability of its targets. This article dissects the divergent segment dynamics, evaluates the strategic portfolio's role in driving resilience, and identifies the pillars of investor confidence in Sobi's ability to meet its ambitious goals.

The Q1 Performance: A Tale of Two Segments

Sobi's Q1 results highlighted stark contrasts between its two core segments:
- Hematology: Delivered a 13% CER revenue increase to SEK 4,632 million, fueled by the launch of Altuvoct (SEK 455 million), sustained sales of Doptelet (SEK 1,129 million), and contributions from Aspaveli/Empaveli (SEK 333 million). This segment's performance underscored the success of Sobi's hemophilia and rare blood disorder therapies.
- Immunology: Suffered a 21% CER revenue drop to SEK 1,526 million, driven by plummeting sales of Synagis (down to SEK 21 million from SEK 520 million) and reduced Beyfortus royalties (SEK 189 million vs. SEK 318 million). However, this was partially offset by strong growth in Gamifant (up 33% to SEK 582 million) and Kineret (up 16% to SEK 735 million).

The strategic portfolio, which includes high-potential products like Altuvoct, Doptelet, Gamifant, and royalties from Beyfortus, grew by 46% at CER to SEK 3,255 million. This segment now accounts for nearly half of total revenue, signaling its critical role in Sobi's growth trajectory.

Drivers of Confidence: Why the Outlook Remains Intact

1. Strategic Portfolio Dominance:
   The 46% growth in the strategic portfolio reflects Sobi's focus on breakthrough therapies for rare diseases. Altuvoct's strong launch and Doptelet's sustained performance in hemophilia therapy, combined with Gamifant's expansion in cancer treatment, provide a sturdy foundation. Sobi's July 2025 collaboration with Apellis Pharmaceuticals—securing upfront payments and milestones for ex-U.S. rights to Aspaveli—adds financial flexibility and expands its immunology pipeline.

2. Margin Resilience:
   Despite Immunology's challenges, Sobi maintained an adjusted EBITA margin of 36%, down slightly from 37% in Q1 2024 but within the reaffirmed guidance. This stability suggests cost discipline and operational efficiency, even in turbulent segments.

3. Pipeline Momentum:
   Upcoming regulatory approvals for Aspaveli/EMPAVELI in C3 glomerulopathy (C3G) and immune complex-mediated proliferative glomerulonephritis (IC-MPGN) could bolster Immunology's prospects. Positive data from these indications, expected in 2025, could reignite growth in this segment.

Risks and Challenges

• Immunology's Volatility: Synagis's steep decline (a 96% drop) and Beyfortus's royalty contraction highlight reliance on a few high-revenue products. Sobi must ensure that Immunology's recovery aligns with new product launches or partnerships.
• Competitive Landscape: Growth in rare disease therapies hinges on outpacing competitors like Baxalta and BioMarin, which are also advancing treatments in niche markets.
• Currency and Market Risks: While revenue is reported at constant exchange rates, fluctuations could impact reported figures in future quarters.

Investment Implications

Sobi's reaffirmed outlook hinges on the strategic portfolio's continued outperformance and Immunology's stabilization. Investors should monitor:
- Gamifant and Kineret: Their ability to offset Synagis's decline and expand into new indications.
- Altuvoct's Adoption: The hemophilia therapy's market penetration in key regions like Europe and the U.S.
- Pipeline Milestones: Regulatory decisions for Aspaveli/EMPAVELI in C3G/IC-MPGN, expected by year-end, will be critical for Immunology's revival.

For now, Sobi's diversified portfolio and strong cash flow (SEK 2,295 million in Q1 operating cash) support its growth targets. The stock's valuation—trading at a forward P/E of ~20x—appears reasonable given its growth profile and rare disease focus.

Final Take

Sobi's unchanged 2025 outlook is plausible but not without risks. The Hematology segment's strength and strategic portfolio's dominance provide a cushion against Immunology's headwinds. Investors should remain cautious on Immunology's recovery but optimistic about Sobi's broader pipeline and financial discipline. With its focus on rare diseases—a sector with high unmet needs and pricing power—the company is positioned for long-term growth, even if near-term volatility persists.

Investment Recommendation: Hold for the medium term, with a focus on execution in key pipeline milestones and Immunology's turnaround. Avoid if seeking short-term catalysts.