Snowflake Soars 2.7% on Analyst Upgrades and Institutional Buying – What’s Fueling This Rally?

Summary
• Snowflake (SNOW) surges 2.7% to $200.17, hitting a 52-week high of $229.27
• Analysts at Loop Capital, Needham, and Morgan Stanley raise price targets to $245–$262
• Prudential and Goldman Sachs boost stakes, with institutional ownership at 65.10%
• Options traders bet on further gains, with $205–$215 calls seeing heavy turnover

Snowflake’s intraday rally has ignited investor fervor, driven by a wave of analyst upgrades, institutional buying, and a bullish technical setup. The stock’s 2.7% surge to $200.17—a 52-week high—reflects growing confidence in its cloud data platform amid a $23.6B GDPR services market boom. With options volatility surging and leveraged ETFs like SNOU up 4.77%, the question is: Can this momentum sustain, or is it a short-term spike?

Analyst Upgrades and Institutional Buying Drive SNOW’s Rally
Snowflake’s 2.7% rally is fueled by a trifecta of catalysts: analyst upgrades, institutional accumulation, and earnings optimism. Loop Capital raised its price target to $245, Needham to $230, and Morgan Stanley to $262, reflecting confidence in Snowflake’s AI-driven data platform. Prudential and Goldman Sachs increased stakes by 145.1% and 22.2%, respectively, while institutional ownership now stands at 65.10%. Meanwhile, Q2 earnings beat estimates by $0.02, with revenue up 25.8% YoY. Analysts at Zacks note that while near-term EPS estimates have dipped slightly, the Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) suggests a focus on long-term fundamentals. The stock’s surge aligns with broader trends in data privacy compliance, as the GDPR services market is projected to grow at 20.2% CAGR through 2033.

Leveraged ETFs and Call Options Highlight Bullish Momentum
• T-REX 2X Long SNOW Daily Target ETF (SNOU): 4.77% gain, 2X leveraged exposure to SNOW’s daily price swings
• 200D MA: $175.38 (well below current price), RSI: 29.83 (oversold), MACD: -5.02 (bearish but diverging from price)
• Bollinger Bands: SNOW trading near lower band ($188.20), suggesting potential rebound

Top Options Picks:
1. SNOW20250822C205
• Code: SNOW20250822C205
• Type: Call
• Strike: $205
• Expiry: 2025-08-22
• IV: 35.35% (moderate), Leverage: 87.39%, Delta: 0.3386 (moderate), Theta: -0.5906 (high time decay), Gamma: 0.0349 (high sensitivity)
• Turnover: 895,289 (liquid)
• Payoff at 5% upside ($210.18): $5.18/share. This contract balances leverage and liquidity, ideal for a moderate bullish bet.
2. SNOW20250822C202.5
• Code: SNOW20250822C202.5
• Type: Call
• Strike: $202.5
• Expiry: 2025-08-22
• IV: 34.52% (moderate), Leverage: 64.55%, Delta: 0.4257 (moderate), Theta: -0.6908 (high time decay), Gamma: 0.0383 (high sensitivity)
• Turnover: 226,075 (liquid)
• Payoff at 5% upside ($210.18): $7.68/share. This contract offers higher leverage and gamma, making it ideal for aggressive bulls.

Action Plan: With SNOW near its 52-week high and RSI at oversold levels, the 205/202.5 calls offer asymmetric upside if the stock breaks above $205. SNOU provides 2X exposure for a more conservative play. Watch for a close above $205 to confirm a breakout.

Backtest Snowflake Stock Performance
The 3-day win rate for SNOW after an intraday surge of 3% is 52.48%, with an average return of -0.04% over that period. The 10-day win rate is 53.92%, with a return of 0.77%. The 30-day win rate is 57.60%, with a return of 2.12%. The maximum return during the backtest was 3.53%, which occurred on day 59 after the surge.

Bullish Setup Confirmed – Act Before Volatility Fades
Snowflake’s 2.7% rally is a textbook bullish breakout, supported by analyst upgrades, institutional buying, and a technical setup primed for a rebound. With RSI at 29.83 and Bollinger Bands near the lower bound, the stock is poised to test its 52-week high of $229.27. The top options picks—SNOW20250822C205 and SNOW20250822C202.5—offer leveraged exposure to this move, while SNOU provides a safer, 2X leveraged alternative. Meanwhile, sector leader IBM’s 1.17% gain underscores the strength of the Data Processing & Outsourced Services sector. Act now: Buy the 205/202.5 calls or SNOU before Friday’s expiry, and target a $210–$215 breakout to lock in gains.