SNDL Soars 21.47% on Trump Marijuana Rescheduling Rumors: Is This the Catalyst for a Sector Breakout?

Summary
• SNDL Inc. (NASDAQ:SNDL) surges 21.47% intraday, trading at $2.1501 amid Trump’s rumored plan to reclassify marijuana as Schedule III.
• Cannabis stocks rally broadly, with Tilray Brands (TLRY) up 32.15% and Canopy Growth (CGC) gaining 20%.
• Options volatility spikes, with SNDL20260116C2 call options surging 483.33% in turnover.
• Sector-wide optimism hinges on potential federal policy shifts, easing banking restrictions and unlocking research pathways.

Trump's Marijuana Rescheduling Rumors Ignite Cannabis Sector Rally
SNDL’s 21.47% intraday surge is directly tied to reports that President Donald Trump is considering reclassifying marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III. This shift, if enacted, would reduce regulatory oversight, aligning cannabis with substances like ketamine and enabling pharmaceutical-grade research. The Washington Post and Bloomberg reports cite discussions with HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and CMS Administrator Mehmet Oz, fueling speculation about eased criminal penalties, lower taxes, and improved access to banking. SNDL, alongside peers like Tilray and Canopy, benefits from reduced stigma and potential market expansion.

Cannabis Sector Unites Behind Trump's Policy Shift
The cannabis sector is rallying in unison, with SNDL’s 21.47% gain mirroring broader industry enthusiasm. Tilray Brands (TLRY) leads the charge with a 32.15% surge, while Canopy Growth (CGC) and Cronos Group (CRON) rise 20% and 14%, respectively. This synchronized move underscores the sector’s reliance on federal policy changes. SNDL’s strategic position as a diversified cannabis operator—spanning cultivation, retail, and international markets—positions it to capitalize on both domestic and global demand shifts if rescheduling materializes.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on SNDL's Volatility
• Technical Indicators: 200-day MA: $1.7528 (below current price); RSI: 65.52 (neutral); MACD: -0.0707 (bullish divergence).
• Key Levels: Support at $1.674–$1.686; resistance at $2.05–$2.20.
• Options Focus: SNDL20260116C2 (call) and SNDL20260417C2.5 (call) offer high leverage and liquidity.
• SNDL20260116C2: Code: SNDL20260116C2; Type: Call; Strike: $2; Expiry: 2026-01-16; IV: 103.31% (high volatility); Delta: 0.6519 (moderate sensitivity); Theta: -0.00478 (rapid time decay); Gamma: 0.5311 (high sensitivity to price swings); Turnover: $125,566 (liquid).
• SNDL20260417C2.5: Code: SNDL20260417C2.5; Type: Call; Strike: $2.5; Expiry: 2026-04-17; IV: 92.22% (moderate volatility); Delta: 0.5068 (moderate sensitivity); Theta: -0.00207 (moderate time decay); Gamma: 0.3418 (moderate sensitivity); Turnover: $51,376 (liquid).
• Payoff Analysis: At a 5% upside (target: $2.2576), SNDL20260116C2 yields $0.2576 per contract, while SNDL20260417C2.5 yields $0.2576. The former’s high gamma and IV make it ideal for short-term bets, while the latter balances time decay with moderate leverage. Aggressive bulls should prioritize SNDL20260116C2 for immediate momentum, while SNDL20260417C2.5 suits a mid-term hold if the rally sustains beyond January.

Backtest SNDL Stock Performance
SNDL's performance after a 21% intraday surge from 2022 to now can be summarized as follows:1. Record Net Revenue and Gross Margin: SNDL achieved record net revenue for Q3 2022 of $230 million, a 3% sequential increase and over 1500% year-over-year. The gross margin grew to $50 million, a record since SNDL's inception, and 17% higher than Q2 2022.2. Investment Segment: SNDL deployed capital to cannabis-related investments, including $527 million to the SunStream Bancorp joint venture. The company's investment segment achieved a record gross margin before fair value adjustments of $3.6 million, a significant improvement from Q3 2021.3. Stock Price Movement: SNDL's stock price surged by 6.7% intraday in August 2025, despite no major fundamental news. This surge was accompanied by a trading volume of 5.3 million shares, indicating concentrated trader/fund activity.4. Market Position and Growth Prospects: SNDL's strategic acquisitions, such as the one with Alcanna Inc., have added over 140 licensed retail outlets across four provinces, enhancing its distribution network. The company is forecasted to deliver rapid earnings growth of 168.19% per year, with revenue growth expected to run at 2.8% per year.In conclusion, SNDL's performance following the 21% intraday surge reflects strong operational and financial improvements, supported by strategic investments and market dynamics. The company's growth prospects remain positive, with expectations of continued earnings growth and market expansion.

Act Now: SNDL's Momentum and Sector Leadership Signal a High-Probability Trade
SNDL’s 21.47% surge reflects a confluence of regulatory optimism and sector-wide alignment. With Tilray Brands (TLRY) surging 32.15%, the cannabis sector is primed for a policy-driven breakout. Investors should monitor the $2.20 intraday high as a critical resistance level; a close above this could trigger a retest of the 52-week high at $2.89. Options traders with a bullish bias should prioritize SNDL20260116C2 for its high gamma and liquidity, while ETFs remain absent from the data. Watch for confirmation of Trump’s rescheduling plans in early January—this could be the catalyst that transforms SNDL’s short-term rally into a sustained bull trend.