SMX's 61.99% Surge: A New Era for Arms & Ammunition?

Summary
• SMX rockets 61.99% intraday, surging from $163.46 to $237.0 amid historic volatility
• US Army unveils $30M antimony refinery project, targeting domestic armor-piercing shell production
• Technicals signal short-term bullish trend with RSI at 62.19 and MACD histogram at 14.34

SMX’s meteoric rise has ignited a firestorm in the Arms & Ammunition sector, driven by the US Army’s groundbreaking antimony refinery initiative. With turnover spiking 123.66% and the stock breaching its 52-week high of $66187.39, this move reflects a seismic shift in defense manufacturing. The 2025-12-11 session has become a pivotal inflection point, as SMX’s 61.99% surge outpaces even its sector leader RGR’s 1.54% gain.

Antimony Refinery Initiative Ignites SMX’s Volatility
The US Army’s $30 million antimony refinery project, announced in collaboration with Idaho National Laboratory and Perpetua Resources, has directly catalyzed SMX’s 61.99% surge. Antimony trisulfide, a critical component in armor-piercing shells and primers, has not been produced domestically since the 1960s. The modular refinery initiative—capable of producing 7–9 metric tons annually—positions SMX as a linchpin in the Pentagon’s 'ground-to-round' supply chain strategy. With Perpetua’s Stibnite Gold Project supplying 35% of US antimony demand, SMX’s technicals align with the military’s urgent need to reduce reliance on foreign mineral suppliers, particularly China.

Arms & Ammunition Sector Rally as SMX Soars, RGR Trails
While SMX’s 61.99% gain dwarfs sector norms, Sturm, Ruger (RGR) posted a modest 1.54% intraday increase. This divergence highlights SMX’s unique positioning in antimony processing versus RGR’s traditional firearms manufacturing. The sector’s broader momentum stems from the Pentagon’s $30 million allocation and Perpetua’s $22.4 million federal support, but SMX’s direct involvement in refining military-grade antimony trisulfide gives it a distinct edge. As the US Army tests modular refineries for tungsten and rare earths, SMX’s role in critical mineral supply chains could outpace peers.

Technical Bull Case: Ride the 52W High Breakout
• MACD: 42.74 (bullish divergence), Signal Line: 28.40, Histogram: 14.34 (momentum acceleration)
• RSI: 62.19 (oversold rebound), Bollinger Bands: 226.92 (upper), 58.18 (middle), -110.56 (lower)
• 30D MA: 39.44 (below price), 200D MA: 7.83 (far below)

SMX’s 61.99% surge has created a textbook short-term bullish setup. The stock is piercing its 52-week high of $66187.39 while RSI (62.19) and MACD (42.74) confirm momentum. Key resistance lies at the 200D MA ($7.83) and 30D MA ($39.44), but intraday volatility suggests a continuation above $237.0. With no options chain data available, leveraged ETFs remain absent, but SMX’s technicals favor holding long positions into the 52W high test. Aggressive bulls should monitor the $272.0 intraday high for a potential breakout.

Backtest SMX Stock Performance
The backtest of SMX's performance after a 62% intraday surge from 2022 to now reveals mixed results. While the stock experienced a significant maximum return of 26% on December 36, 2025, the overall trend was negative, with a final return of -7.03% over 30 days. The win rates for 3, 10, and 30 days were 29.87%, 34.20%, and 38.96%, respectively, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term but a decline in performance over longer periods.

Bullish Momentum Unstoppable: SMX’s 52W High Challenge
SMX’s 61.99% surge is not a flash in the pan but a structural shift driven by the US Army’s antimony refinery initiative. With MACD divergence and RSI re-entry into neutral territory, the stock is primed to test its 52-week high of $66187.39. Sector leader RGR’s 1.54% gain pales in comparison to SMX’s momentum, underscoring its unique role in critical mineral supply chains. Investors should hold long positions into the 52W high breakout, while closely watching the $272.0 intraday high level. If SMX clears this, the next target is the 30D MA at $39.44—hold tight, the ride is just beginning.