Smurfit WestRock Jumps 5.15% To $43.30 On Technical Rebound From $40 Support

Smurfit WestRock (SW) rose 5.15% in the latest session, closing at $43.30, marking its second consecutive daily gain with a cumulative 7.42% advance. This rebound followed a dip to $40.03 on October 6, forming a micro double-bottom pattern that indicates robust buyer interest near this threshold. The current technical assessment integrates multiple frameworks below.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action reveals significant bullish signals, including a gap-up opening on October 8 after the prior close at $41.18, resulting in a robust green candle with a wide range ($41.64–$43.52) that closed near its high. This formed a bullish island reversal pattern following the October 6 low of $40.03. Key resistance is established at $44.40 (September 19 high), while critical support rests at $40.03 (October 6 low). The gap zone between $41.18–$41.64 provides immediate intraday support.
Moving Average Theory
Price currently trades below all major moving averages—50-day (~$44.50), 100-day (~$45.20), and 200-day (~$47.00)—confirming a bearish long-term trend structure. The 50-day MA has crossed below the 100-day MA, amplifying negative momentum. However, the recovery from the $40.03 low suggests potential for a short-term trend shift, with sustained closes above $44.00 needed to alter the intermediate outlook.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram shows diminishing bearish momentum, nearing a potential bullish crossover as the signal line converges. Concurrently, the KDJ indicator exited oversold territory (K: 25, D: 22) on October 7–8, with the %K line crossing above %D. This confluence of momentum reversal signals suggests waning selling pressure. Should the KDJ sustain above 50 and the MACD trigger a bullish crossover, it may confirm upside continuation potential.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Band width expanded sharply during the October 6 downswing (volatility spike), with price testing the lower band. The subsequent rebound positioned price above the 20-day midline ($42.20), suggesting stabilization. A sustained move toward the upper band ($46.00) could indicate strengthening bullish conviction, while a retreat below $42.20 might trigger renewed volatility compression.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume surged 6% on October 8 versus the prior session, confirming bullish conviction during the 5.15% rally. Notably, the October 6 sell-off also occurred on elevated volume (6.9M shares), establishing a high-volume base that buyers overcame. This volume-profile shift validates the recovery attempt, with accumulation patterns visible above $40.00. Sustained trade >6M shares on advances would reinforce bullish validity.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI reading of 45 neutralizes extreme conditions following its oversold dip to 28 on October 6. While not yet signaling overbought conditions, the sharp recovery from oversold territory suggests bearish exhaustion. Caution is warranted near the 55–60 zone, where minor resistance may emerge, but current readings allow room for additional upside before reaching overbought thresholds (>70).
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the September 19 peak ($44.40) and October 6 trough ($40.03), key Fibonacci levels are $42.73 (38.2%), $42.22 (50%), and $41.70 (61.8%). The price has breached the 23.6% retracement ($43.37) intraday but failed to close above it. A decisive break past $43.37 could pave the way toward $44.40 resistance, while failure here may see retracement to the $42.22–$42.73 support cluster.
Confluence is observed between the Fibonacci 23.6% resistance ($43.37), the RSI neutrality (45), and Bollinger midline reclaimation ($42.20), aligning with bullish candlestick and volume signals. A notable divergence exists between the bearish moving average structure and bullish momentum oscillators, reflecting conflicting short- versus long-term forces. Probabilistically, the confluence supports near-term upside toward $44.40 if $43.37 is sustainably cleared, though the overarching moving average resistance warrants vigilance for reversals near technical ceilings.