Smurfit WestRock Drops 3% As Technical Indicators Signal Persistent Bearish Pressure

The most recent trading session saw Smurfit WestRock (SW) decline by 3.00%, closing at $44.27 on September 12, 2025. This analysis evaluates the stock’s technical posture using the framework specified.
Candlestick Theory
The daily price action shows SW testing the $44.22-$44.27 support zone, a critical psychological and technical floor reinforced by the August 20, 2025 swing low of $41.94. Resistance is evident near $46.00 (September 9-11 highs) and more robustly at $47.50-$48.00 (late August peaks). The recent rejection from $45.835 on September 11 formed a bearish engulfing pattern, which was validated by the subsequent 3% sell-off, suggesting persistent downward pressure.
Moving Average Theory
All key moving averages exhibit bearish alignment. The 50-day SMA ($44.80) remains below the 100-day SMA ($45.30), with both trending downward. The 200-day SMA ($46.50) caps recent rallies, confirming a long-term downtrend. Current price action below all three MAs reflects entrenched bearish momentum, though oversold conditions may prompt mean-reversion bounces toward the 50-day SMA.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram (-0.85) shows accelerating bearish momentum, with both signal and MACD lines in negative territory. KDJ readings (K:18.2, D:22.5, J:9.6) indicate extreme oversold conditions, with J-line divergence appearing as prices approach multi-month lows. While this hints at a potential short-term bounce, the primary trend remains negative until K/D cross above 20.
Bollinger Bands
Price breached the lower Bollinger Band ($44.60) on September 12, coinciding with heightened volatility (band expansion). Historically, such events preceded tactical rebounds, but the mid-band (20-day SMA at $45.50) now serves as dynamic resistance. Band expansion persists, signaling elevated downside volatility risk.
Volume-Price Relationship
The 3.26M shares traded during the September 12 decline exceeded the 20-day average volume (3.01M), confirming bearish conviction. Distribution patterns are evident, as down days (September 9, September 4) featured higher volume than up days (September 5). The August 20 capitulation bottom at $41.95 occurred on 7.7M shares but lacked follow-through volume on recoveries, undermining sustainability.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (27.1) entered oversold territory (<30), approaching the August 20 low of 25.3. While this warns of exhaustion, bearish divergence occurred in late August as prices made higher highs ($47.54 on August 8) while RSI peaked at 52.1, foreshadowing the current breakdown. RSI below 30 may support a technical bounce but does not guarantee reversal.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the major swing high of $56.99 (November 22, 2024) and swing low of $37.01 (April 9, 2025), key retracement levels are: 23.6% ($41.73), 38.2% ($44.64), and 50% ($47.00). The current rejection at the 38.2% level (tested September 11) underscores its resistance significance. A sustained break above $44.64 is needed to target $47.00; failure here risks retesting $41.73.
Confluence and Divergence
Confluence of bearish signals is notable:
- Price below all key MAs aligns with MACD negative momentum and volume-confirmed breakdown
- Oversold KDJ/RSI lack bullish confirmation from price action
- Fibonacci resistance at $44.64 coincides with the 100-day SMA
Notable bullish divergence exists in KDJ’s J-line (higher low vs. price’s lower low since early September), hinting at waning downside momentum, though unconfirmed by other oscillators.
In summary, SW exhibits dominant bearish trends across indicators, with resistance clustered at $44.60-$45.50 (Fibonacci 38.2%, SMA cluster) and critical support at $41.73 (Fibonacci 23.6%). While deeply oversold readings suggest potential near-term stabilization, sustained recovery requires a volume-backed break above $45.50.