Smurfit WestRock Drops 3.10% Amid Persistent Bearish Technical Signals

Smurfit WestRock experienced a 3.10% decline in the most recent trading session, closing at 43.72 with a daily range between 43.62 and 44.82. This movement is assessed within the following technical framework.
Candlestick Theory
The recent candlestick pattern reveals consistent rejection near 45.15 resistance, evidenced by the 8/13 session closing near its high (45.12) followed by immediate selling pressure the next day. Key support is established at 42.60 (8/6 low), while resistance persists at 45.15. The absence of bullish reversal patterns like hammers or engulfing formations near support suggests continued bearish control, with the 8/14 long red candle closing near its low indicating sustained downward momentum.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average (estimated ~45.30) and 200-day moving average (estimated ~44.80) both trade above the current price (43.72), signaling bearish alignment. Recent price action has consistently failed to breach the 50-day MA, reinforcing its resistance role. The potential for a "death cross" (50-day MA below 200-day MA) is emerging given accelerated short-term deterioration, suggesting entrenched bearish momentum across all evaluated timeframes.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram remains entrenched in negative territory, with the MACD line below its signal line, confirming bearish momentum. KDJ calculations show %K at approximately 43.8, derived from recent price range extremes (42.60–45.15), reflecting no oversold signal. Bearish divergence is evident as KDJ peaks have diminished alongside successively lower price highs since July’s peak at 46.82, suggesting weakening upward impetus.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility expansion is apparent following the band contraction in early August, with price now trading below the lower Bollinger Band (20-day SMA ~44.50; lower band ~43.20). This deviation typically signals oversold conditions, but persistent closes beneath the lower band – observed twice in August – may portend continuation rather than reversal. Band expansion aligns with accelerating downward momentum.
Volume-Price Relationship
Elevated volume accompanied major downswings (e.g., 8/06: -3.49% on 6.08M shares vs. average ~3.5M), confirming distribution. Conversely, upside volume during the 8/12-13 rally was unsustainably lower, indicating weak accumulation. Volume confirmation of breakdowns versus unconfirmed recoveries reinforces bearish volume dynamics and weakens support structures.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (approximated at 41) remains above oversold territory (<30) but reflects deteriorating momentum. Failure to reclaim the 45-neutral level during August’s recovery attempts demonstrates consistent downward pressure. While not yet at oversold extremes, RSI’s trajectory aligns with bearish price action, offering no contrarian reversal signal at this stage.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci levels to the 48.80 high (7/29) and 42.60 low (8/06) yields critical thresholds: 23.6% (44.06), 38.2% (44.97), and 50% (45.70). Recent rejection near the 38.2% level (8/13 high 45.15) validated this resistance confluence. Current trading below the 23.6% level signals weakness, positioning 44.06 as immediate resistance. Downside vulnerability persists with no Fibonacci support until the 42.60 swing low.
Confluence and Divergence
Confluence of resistance between Fibonacci levels (44.06–44.97), moving averages (45.30–44.80), and Bollinger Mid-Band emphasizes a significant technical barrier. Bearish consensus strengthens through MACD’s negative trajectory, KDJ’s non-oversold status, and deteriorating RSI structure. No countertrend divergences were identified; indicators uniformly align with prevailing downward price action, implying sustained bearish pressure.