What the Smart Money Is Really Doing: A Look at Recent Insider Moves

The only true signal is what insiders do with their own money. While headlines and analyst ratings come and go, the trades of a company's top executives are a direct bet on the future. When they use their hard-earned cash to buy stock, it's a powerful conviction signal. After all, who knows more about a company's near-term trajectory than the person running it? Executives can sell for taxes or diversification, but they generally buy because they think the stock is too cheap.

Academic research backs this up. Studies have consistently shown that companies with concentrated insider buying outperform the market by 4–8% over the following year. This isn't magic; it's the result of management's informational edge. They see customer contracts, margin data, and internal forecasts long before they hit quarterly filings. When they act on that knowledge, it can foreshadow improving fundamentals.

Yet, the broader market tells a different story. In June 2025, the overall U.S. market's Insider Buy/Sell Ratio stood at 0.29. That's well below the long-term average, meaning insiders were selling more than they were buying. This ratio has declined by 12% compared to the same period last year, reflecting a more cautious or even pessimistic outlook among corporate insiders. For CEOs specifically, the ratio is slightly higher at 0.44, but still below historical norms. The takeaway is clear: those closest to the action are increasingly locking in profits.

So, what should you watch for? Focus on significant purchases, not small ones. A large, meaningful buy by a CEO or CFO carries far more weight than a minor transaction. Also, be wary of 10b5-1 plans, which are pre-arranged trading schedules that can mask true conviction. The smart money isn't just looking at the headline ratio; they're digging into the details of who is buying, how much, and why.

Recent Whale Moves: A Case Study in Contradiction

The smart money isn't sending a single message. It's shouting in three different directions at once. While the overall insider ratio shows caution, these specific trades reveal a deeper split: conviction versus profit-taking, and a CEO's small bet that might be more telling than it first appears.

First, the bold long-term call. On December 5, Mason G. Morfit, a Salesforce board member and co-CEO of ValueAct Capital, purchased approximately $25 million worth of shares. This wasn't a casual dip. It's a high-conviction bet placed after a brutal year where the stock is down about 21%. The timing is key. He bought just days after the company's latest earnings report, a move that suggests he sees the recent pressure as a buying opportunity, not a warning sign. For all the talk of AI momentum, this is a direct vote of confidence from someone who manages other people's money. It's a classic "skin in the game" signal that the long-term thesis still holds.

Then there's the opposite playbook. In a stark contrast, SoftBank Group sold more than $186 million worth of Symbotic shares on December 8. This is the first major insider sale from a top holder after the stock surged roughly 159% year-to-date. The math here is simple: you sell when you're happy with the run. SoftBank's move is textbook profit-taking, locking in gains after a massive rally. It's a reminder that even the most bullish long-term investors need to manage their portfolios, and sometimes that means trimming winners.

Finally, a smaller but recent signal from the CEO of Cosmos Health. Just last week, CEO Grigorios Siokas purchased 493,495 shares for $220,000. The amount is modest compared to the Salesforce whale, but the timing is fresh. In a market where insiders are generally cautious, a CEO making a meaningful purchase on his own account is a quiet but potent signal. It suggests he believes the stock is undervalued or that the company's near-term prospects are brighter than the broader market sees.

The bottom line? These moves show the smart money isn't monolithic. Some are doubling down on beaten-down growth, others are cashing out of hot streaks, and a few are quietly betting on a turnaround. The real story isn't in the headline ratio, but in these individual decisions. Watch who buys when the stock is down, and who sells when it's up. That's where the true alignment of interest often reveals itself.

The Institutional Context: Buffett's Cash and the Smart Money's Patience

While retail insiders are selling, the smart money is waiting. The largest institutional investors, like Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, are sitting on a mountain of cash, signaling they see no deal big enough to move the needle. At the end of the third quarter, Berkshire's cash hoard swelled to a record $381.6 billion. That's liquidity on a scale that makes most corporate treasuries look like change in a couch. Buffett himself admitted he found no opportunities in 2025 large enough to justify a move at sensible prices. He's willing to spend $100 billion, but he's not finding it. This isn't just caution; it's a statement that the right, transformative deal is still out there, and the patient whales aren't budging until they see it.

This institutional patience creates a clear divergence from the retail insider signal. While the average insider is locking in gains, with the overall Insider Buy/Sell Ratio at 0.29, the biggest players are doing the opposite. They're not selling; they're not buying. They're hoarding cash. It's a stark contrast: the people running the companies are trimming their stakes, while the people with the deepest pockets are refusing to deploy them. This gap suggests a lack of alignment. The insiders see enough to take money off the table, but the institutional giants see enough uncertainty that they won't commit capital.

So where is the conviction? Look for the quiet accumulators. In September 2025, one large institutional buyer made a notable move, purchasing over 6.3 million shares at a discount. That's a whale wallet moving, not a retail investor. It's a classic sign of institutional accumulation, a bet that the market has mispriced something. When the big money finally starts buying in volume, it often follows a period of hesitation like this. For now, the cash hoard is the dominant signal. It means the smart money is waiting for a catalyst, a clear mispricing, or a genuine opportunity. Until then, the market's patience is being tested.

Catalysts and What to Watch

The smart money's bets are just the opening act. The real confirmation-or contradiction-comes from the next set of moves. Watch these near-term events to see if the insider signals hold water.

First, monitor upcoming earnings reports for a disconnect. The Salesforce board member's $25 million purchase was placed just days after the company's latest earnings. The market's reaction to the next report will be telling. If the stock rallies on strong guidance, it validates the insider's conviction. If it tanks despite the buy, it could signal the purchase was a contrarian bet that missed its mark. The key is alignment: when insiders buy, they want the fundamentals to back it up.

Second, track the overall Insider Buy/Sell Ratio for any reversal. The trend of widespread selling is clear, with the ratio at 0.29 in June 2025. A sustained move above 0.42, the long-term average, would be a major shift. It would suggest insiders are finally seeing value again, not just taking money off the table. Until then, the low ratio remains a red flag for general caution.

Finally, watch for large institutional 13F filings to see if they are accumulating shares in companies where insiders are buying. The smart money isn't just retail traders. Look for the whale wallets. In September 2025, one large institutional buyer made a notable move, purchasing over 6.3 million shares at a discount. If similar large-scale accumulation follows the recent insider buying, it would create a powerful, multi-layered signal. It would mean both the people running the company and the deep-pocketed investors see a mispricing. If not, it could be a case of a single insider buying while the broader smart money waits.